Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle bottom and may drop to around $57,000 before staging a sustained recovery, according to early investor and Bitcoin Supercycle author Michael Terpin — a view that runs counter to the market’s increasingly bullish stance.
Terpin, often dubbed the “Crypto Godfather,” said recent gains do little to change the broader trend, arguing that bitcoin remains in a corrective phase. A true bull market, he said, would require a decisive break above $100,000 — a level that currently lacks strong support.
“We’re still in a bitcoin downturn,” Terpin said, cautioning that the market has yet to establish a firm base.
A veteran of the crypto industry since 2013, Terpin founded Transform Group, CoinAgenda, and BitAngels. His latest outlook contrasts with the prevailing narrative that bitcoin’s February dip near $60,000 marked the cycle low, a view supported by ETF inflows and the asset’s resilience during recent geopolitical and commodity-driven volatility.
Terpin pointed to a recent rejection near $80,000 during Asian trading hours as evidence of lingering weakness, noting that such failed rallies are typical before a final capitulation phase, where selling pressure peaks.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, agrees the bottom may not yet be in but challenged Terpin’s timeline. He said the market has not fully undergone capitulation — typically defined by widespread selling from long-term holders and the unwinding of leveraged positions.
“While a delayed bottom is plausible, we haven’t seen the kind of market-wide exhaustion that usually signals a durable low,” Fernandes said.
Terpin’s $57,000 projection is based on historical cycle patterns, particularly the tendency for bitcoin to take roughly a year to form a bottom. He expects that process to play out by October.
Fernandes added that macro conditions remain a key risk, with tight liquidity and a prolonged higher-rate environment continuing to weigh on risk assets.
“Until there’s a clear shift in monetary policy or a full washout in crypto, downside volatility is likely to persist,” he said.
Terpin also dismissed the likelihood of bitcoin reaching a new all-time high this year — a stance that has drawn pushback from other analysts.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, said the outlook underestimates the impact of institutional demand.
“A new all-time high is still very much in play given the level of adoption we’re seeing,” Greenspan said.
Fernandes noted that sentiment has yet to reach the extreme pessimism typically associated with market bottoms, suggesting further downside cannot be ruled out.
“We’re not seeing peak fear yet,” he said. “That usually comes before a sustainable base is formed.”
On the $100,000 level, Fernandes said its importance is largely psychological rather than technical.
“A bull market is defined by consistent higher highs and strong inflows — not just a single price level,” he said. “But breaking $100,000 could help trigger that shift.”
