Bitcoin ETFs returned to positive territory on November 4 as BTC recovered above $81,000, although expectations surrounding Federal Reserve rate cuts remain uncertain. Goldman Sachs has revised its monetary policy forecast, delaying its expected rate reductions by three months. The bank now anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in December 2026 and March 2027, citing stubborn inflation and continued resilience in the U.S. labor market.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $74.6 million in net inflows, breaking a three-day withdrawal streak that had drained approximately $1.16 billion from the funds. Fidelity’s FBTC accounted for the strongest inflows, while BlackRock’s IBIT continued to experience significant investor exits.
Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund attracted around $236.7 million on November 4. Meanwhile, Bitwise’s BITB recorded $15.2 million in fresh investments, and ARK Invest’s ARKB added another $19.9 million.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust moved in the opposite direction, experiencing $201.2 million in net withdrawals. The latest outflows extended IBIT’s negative streak to four consecutive trading sessions, bringing its cumulative losses to approximately $935 million.
The difference between fund performances indicates that institutional investors are not returning to Bitcoin ETFs at the same pace. While several products attracted fresh capital, continued withdrawals from BlackRock’s fund highlight uneven demand across the market.
Bitcoin also recovered from a seven-week low of approximately $75,600 recorded around the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. The cryptocurrency subsequently climbed above $81,000 as financial markets stabilized following the election results. However, the recovery appears to reflect several market factors rather than a single identifiable catalyst.
Goldman Sachs Delays Rate Cut Forecast as Inflation Remains Elevated
Goldman Sachs has pushed its expected Federal Reserve rate cuts back by one quarter, with the bank now forecasting reductions in December 2026 and March 2027.
The revised projection reflects concerns that persistent energy costs could prevent core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from falling meaningfully, potentially keeping it around 3% throughout the year.
Goldman economist David Mericle indicated that additional evidence of slowing inflation and weakening employment conditions would likely be necessary for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates before December.
The bank continues to project that the federal funds rate will eventually settle between 3% and 3.25%. However, it also acknowledged that the central bank could reconsider further monetary easing if economic growth and labor market conditions remain stronger than anticipated.
Bank of America has adopted a more conservative position, abandoning its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 altogether. The bank now expects monetary easing to begin in the third quarter of 2027.
These changing expectations could create additional challenges for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Lower interest rates generally improve liquidity conditions and reduce borrowing costs, potentially encouraging investors to increase exposure to riskier assets. Delayed rate cuts could therefore limit the amount of capital flowing into cryptocurrencies.
Despite the less favorable monetary policy outlook, the latest Bitcoin ETF figures suggest that institutional investors have not abandoned their interest in the asset. The return of positive net flows indicates that some investors continue accumulating BTC even as expectations for Federal Reserve easing weaken.
Bitcoin is consequently facing two opposing market forces. Sustained ETF inflows could provide an additional source of buying pressure and help stabilize prices. On the other hand, persistent inflation and elevated borrowing costs could restrict liquidity and weaken demand for speculative investments.
The direction of Bitcoin’s next move may therefore depend on whether institutional demand remains strong enough to offset the impact of a more restrictive monetary policy outlook. Investors will also be watching upcoming inflation and employment figures for further indications of when the Federal Reserve might resume cutting interest rates.
