Bitcoin posted modest gains on Monday, supported by improving market sentiment after a sharp drop in oil prices lifted Asian equities.
The cryptocurrency was trading near $77,200 at 6:35 UTC, up about 0.4% on the day, according to CoinDesk data. This placed it just above its widely watched 50-day simple moving average around $76,940, a level traders often interpret as a bullish signal when held.
Other major tokens also edged higher, though they continued to lag bitcoin on a technical basis. XRP and Solana (SOL) gained more than 0.6%, while Ether (ETH) rose roughly 0.4%, with all three still trading below their respective 50-day averages.
Risk appetite improved after West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell more than 5% to around $91 per barrel, extending a sharp decline from last week’s peak above $104. The drop in oil prices helped drive gains in Asian stock markets, with India’s Nifty up over 1%, Japan’s Nikkei rising करीब 3%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advancing 0.4%.
The move followed reports of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route that accounted for over 20% of supply flows before tensions escalated earlier this year. Iran’s IRGC said more than 20 tankers had recently passed through the strait, though volumes remain below pre-conflict levels.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled that negotiations with Iran were advancing, stating that a strong proposal was on the table and a deal to end hostilities could be reached as soon as Monday. He added that the U.S. remains committed to diplomacy but is prepared to consider other options if needed.
Despite the more constructive backdrop, analysts remained cautious on bitcoin’s outlook, citing over $2 billion in outflows from spot ETFs in the past two weeks.
Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said ETF flows remain a key indicator. While bitcoin can withstand some institutional selling if liquidity conditions remain stable and long-term holders stay firm, continued outflows could weaken the sustainability of any rally.
India-based exchange CoinSwitch echoed a similar view, noting that a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement would likely be necessary for sustained upside. The platform also highlighted on-chain data showing a net inflow of 18,528 BTC to centralized exchanges, pointing to potential selling pressure even as sentiment improves.
