Bitcoin is on course to register its first-ever consecutive declines in January and February, sealing what is shaping up to be its weakest start to a year on record.
Fifty days into 2026, bitcoin is down 23% year to date, according to data from Checkonchain. The cryptocurrency slid 10% in January and has dropped an additional 15% in February so far, putting it on track for its poorest opening stretch of any financial year.
Figures from Coinglass show that bitcoin has never before recorded back-to-back losses in the first two months of a calendar year. Even during challenging periods such as 2015, 2016, and 2018 — when January saw double-digit declines — February rebounded into positive territory. If current trends hold, bitcoin would also mark its weakest consecutive monthly performance since 2022.
Checkonchain’s cyclical index data further illustrates the magnitude of the drawdown. In a typical bearish year, the average reading sits near 0.84 by day 50 — a level traders often use to assess the depth of downturns. Bitcoin currently stands at 0.77, signaling a sharper-than-average pullback.
The weak start comes after a 17% decline in 2025, a post-election year. Historically, post-election years have tended to outperform election years and have, on aggregate, delivered stronger returns than other positive years. Against that backdrop, bitcoin’s continued underperformance in early 2026 appears particularly notable.
