Major cryptocurrencies were broadly higher over the past 24 hours, although Zcash and Hyperliquid remained the only large-cap tokens still in positive territory over the past seven days.
Bitcoin was trading above $77,600 during Thursday’s Asian session, gaining about 1.5% in 24 hours. The price had dropped to roughly $76,400 late Wednesday in U.S. trading before buyers returned and pushed it higher.
XRP led the major cryptocurrencies, climbing nearly 3% to around $1.36. BNB rose almost 2% to just below $692, while Solana gained about 2% and reclaimed the $100 area. Tron advanced roughly 1% to about $0.33, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE was little changed above $82. Ether underperformed the group, trading just below $2,400.
Over the previous seven days, Ether has declined nearly 4%, while Tron has lost around 3%, XRP is down roughly 3% and Bitcoin has slipped about 1%. Zcash, trading near $817, and HYPE are therefore the only major tokens maintaining weekly gains.
Bitfinex analysts said the average cost basis for active Bitcoin investors was around $76,350. Bitcoin came within approximately $50 of that level before buyers emerged. The area has repeatedly attracted selling from investors who accumulated BTC in February and March, with many choosing to exit near breakeven rather than realize losses.
September Could Bring More Bitcoin Volatility
Bitfinex expects Bitcoin could face another pullback in the weeks ahead, pointing to September’s historically weak seasonal performance. According to the analysts, BTC has recorded an average September return of -2.95% since 2013.
Still, they noted that the momentum carried over from August could keep the longer-term trend constructive. Any correction during September may therefore become a temporary setback rather than a reversal of the broader upward trend.
Bitcoin has also managed to hold its recent levels despite pressure coming from the bond and commodity markets.
Renewed U.S. military activity near the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sharply higher and brought inflation concerns back into focus. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.8%, marking its highest closing level since 2023, while the dollar index approached 100.
U.S. stocks largely absorbed the macroeconomic pressure. The S&P 500 ended at 7,646, while the Dow gained approximately 277 points. Gold settled around $4,418.
Fed Rate-Hike Bets Ease
CME FedWatch data now shows traders assigning slightly more than a 62% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting. That is down from above 67% a day earlier but remains well above the roughly 37% probability seen a week ago, before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. Markets are pricing in virtually no chance of a rate cut.
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is now the next major event for markets, with the result likely to influence expectations for the September Fed meeting.
Bitcoin’s options market is also positioned around the employment data. Put protection is concentrated between $68,000 and $75,000 for the period between the payrolls release and the September 11 CPI report. On the upside, call options are positioned above Bitcoin’s current range, while leverage in perpetual futures remains significantly below August’s peak.
If Friday’s payroll figures come in weaker than expected, especially following Wednesday’s disappointing ADP data, expectations for a Fed hike could fall further. That could give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge the $80,000 level.
