Bitcoin fell toward $76,500 as escalating U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets triggered renewed pressure across risk assets. BTC was down more than 1% since midnight UTC and about 3% over the previous seven days.
Oil prices moved sharply higher as tensions intensified. Brent crude broke above $93 a barrel, while WTI approached $90. The Dollar Index gained 0.13% since midnight.
Higher energy prices also raised inflation concerns, sending the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield toward 4.8%. Equity futures weakened at the same time, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.31% and S&P 500 futures off 0.11%.
Derivatives Market Shifts Bearish
Shorts gain the upper hand: The 24-hour long-short taker volume ratio turned negative, with short trades making up 51.5% of total flow, CoinGlass data showed. The shift came after several sessions of neutral positioning. Crypto trading volume climbed 19% to $203 billion over 24 hours, while open interest remained around $136 billion for the second day in a row.
Bitcoin traders remain cautious on leverage: BTC’s decline has not been accompanied by a significant increase in leveraged short positions. Futures open interest stayed around 700,000 BTC over the past 24 hours. That remains well below the yearly high of 801,000 BTC, indicating relatively light positioning.
Ether sees fresh short exposure: ETH is displaying more bearish positioning. Its price fell while open interest increased slightly, a combination commonly associated with traders adding shorts. Ether futures open interest rose to 13.72 million tokens, the highest level since Aug. 18, though it remains below the record 15.68 million reached in May.
CVD confirms seller dominance: Bitcoin and ether’s 24-hour cumulative volume delta readings also favor sellers. Negative CVD suggests short trades are being executed aggressively at market prices rather than through passive limit orders. The pattern extends to most major tokens, with UNI as the notable exception.
UNI’s rally remains supported: Uniswap’s UNI climbed 4% in 24 hours to $6.37, its highest level in seven months. Futures open interest reached a record 89.44 million tokens, reinforcing the spot-market rally. Funding rates remain below 10% on an annualized basis, suggesting bullish positioning without the extreme crowding that can leave markets vulnerable to a long squeeze.
TRX remains heavily skewed short: Tron continues to show unusually crowded bearish positioning, with funding rates near minus 85% for a second consecutive day.
Volatility expectations retreat: The 30-day implied volatility indexes for bitcoin and ether have erased their mid-August gains, indicating that traders are no longer pricing in the same degree of near-term turbulence.
Options traders turn defensive: Bitcoin’s $70,000 put expiring Sept. 25 was the most heavily traded BTC options contract on Deribit over the past 24 hours. Four of the other five top contracts by volume were calls, however, leaving the broader picture mixed. In ether, the $2,200 put expiring Sept. 11 led activity, while most of the remaining top five contracts were also puts. Traders use puts to hedge against declines or position for lower prices.
Altcoins Diverge
ETHFI from Ether.fi gained 4.63% since midnight, reaching about 58.9 cents and making it one of the few altcoins to hold higher ground as the broader market weakened.
Monero rose 2.27% to roughly $516, extending its move from $464 a week ago. XMR has remained relatively independent of broader crypto-market swings and has been among the stronger performers over the last two weeks.
Zcash also advanced, adding 1% to $824.63. ZEC has gained 71.23% over the past 30 days.
ARB continued its sharp advance, rising 9.33% over 24 hours to 11.68 cents. The Arbitrum token has benefited from continued revenue generated by Robinhood Chain being sent to the Arbitrum DAO treasury.
On the downside, DASH dropped 4.72% to $41.82. PUMP fell 3.54% to 0.4223 cents, while NEAR declined 2.29% to $1.8429. XRP also remained under pressure, falling 1.72% to $1.3281 and bringing its weekly decline to 6.22%.
