Bitcoin is heading toward a third consecutive monthly gain, potentially ending a decade-long September pattern. But higher Treasury yields, rising oil prices and two major November events could create fresh challenges for the rally in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin has advanced roughly 7% in September, following a 25% increase in August. Since 2013, every September that followed a positive August ended in the red. With just two days remaining, a monthly gain would break that pattern and give bitcoin three straight positive months from July through September.
The move would also leave bitcoin’s third-quarter performance above 40%, marking its first quarterly gain since Q3 2025.
Macro Risks Enter Q4
Bitcoin has historically performed strongest during the fourth quarter, with CoinGlass data showing an average Q4 gain of about 77%.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading near $84,000, although the broader macro environment remains unsettled. Global bond yields have been moving higher, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2%. The MOVE index, which tracks volatility expectations in the Treasury market, has also climbed above 100 and is nearing its year-to-date highs.
Oil prices above $90 a barrel are adding another inflation concern for markets. Gold, meanwhile, fell roughly 3% on Monday to slightly above $4,000 an ounce.
November Could Bring New Volatility
Two major events in November could also influence liquidity and investor risk appetite.
Anthropic is reportedly considering a November IPO, which could redirect some investor capital toward a major new equity offering. The timing and size of the potential listing, however, have not been finalized.
The U.S. midterm elections will take place in November as well, giving investors another factor to consider as they assess the potential direction of economic and government policy.
For bitcoin, the start of Q4 therefore comes with both strong historical seasonality and a more challenging macro backdrop.
