Arca is attributing last week’s Bitcoin decline to Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC, rejecting Michael Saylor’s claim that AI-driven capital rotation was the main cause of the selloff.
Saylor had argued that the surge in AI infrastructure spending is absorbing significant capital and temporarily weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Arca, however, says the pressure came directly from Strategy’s own actions.
In a weekly note, Arca CIO Jeff Dorman wrote that “the selling pressure last week was clearly due to the Saylor/MSTR news,” calling out what he described as “gaslighting from MSTR and other Bitcoin bulls.”
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell nearly 14% to around $60,000 over the week. The drop followed Strategy’s June 1 disclosure that it had sold 32 BTC in the prior week, while still holding roughly 845,256 BTC worth billions.
Saylor maintained that the decline was driven by broader macro forces, arguing that AI investment is pulling liquidity across global markets. He added that this does not weaken Bitcoin, but instead reinforces its role as scarce, long-term digital capital.
Arca disagrees with that interpretation.
Dorman emphasized that the key issue was not the relatively small 32 BTC sale—worth about $2.5 million—but the message it sent to the market. In his view, it raised concerns that Strategy may be forced into larger Bitcoin sales to meet dividend obligations tied to its preferred shares, including STRC.
He also highlighted Strategy’s recent financial moves, noting that the firm used cash reserves to retire zero-coupon debt and then unsettled investors with a Bitcoin sale that barely covers a month of preferred dividends. With only a few months of liquidity runway left, he said the market is now focused on what happens next.
What could turn sentiment
Dorman outlined one scenario that could restore confidence: if Strategy files an 8-K showing it has raised $2–$4 billion through MSTR equity issuance and Bitcoin sales, enough to cover preferred dividends through September 2028. He argued that such a buffer would remove forced-selling fears and likely trigger a strong rally.
However, he does not expect this outcome.
Instead, he suggested Saylor remains strongly committed to Bitcoin accumulation, meaning Strategy may continue incremental BTC sales to meet obligations—introducing steady selling pressure over time.
He warned that when a major long-term buyer becomes a forced seller, markets tend to continue pricing in that stress until conditions materially improve.
Market structure silver lining
Despite the volatility, Dorman pointed to a positive structural signal: Bitcoin initially declined without immediately dragging the broader crypto market down, suggesting investors are beginning to distinguish between individual digital assets rather than selling everything in tandem.
Bitcoin dominance also fell for a second straight week, dropping below 58% for the first time since September.
Earlier in the week, BTC fell on its own specific catalyst while other crypto assets remained relatively stable—an indication, he said, of a more selective and maturing market structure.
By the end of the week, however, the selling pressure intensified and most major cryptocurrencies eventually moved lower alongside Bitcoin.
