Bitcoin is close to confirming a technical bullish setup that has not appeared in more than a year, even as the cryptocurrency trades lower in the current session.
The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are approaching a configuration in which each shorter-term average sits above the longer-term one. If confirmed, the arrangement would signal that bitcoin’s short-, medium- and long-term price trends are aligned to the upside for the first time since 2025.
The required structure places the 50-day average above the 100-day and the 100-day above the 200-day. Bitcoin has already cleared the first hurdle, with its 50-day average at $79,495. The 100-day average is at $79,493 and moving higher, while the 200-day average stands at $79,539. A move by the 100-day average above the 200-day would complete the bullish alignment.
“That crossover would restore the order of 50-day above 100-day above 200-day for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk.
Moving averages help traders gauge the direction and strength of price trends. A shorter-term average trading above a longer-term average generally indicates that recent prices are stronger than those recorded over longer periods, pointing to positive momentum.
The potential signal comes after a strong three-month recovery for bitcoin. BTC gained more than 40% to reach $87,000 during the third quarter. The rally has since slowed around $85,000, with the U.S. Dollar Index continuing to trend higher.
Subburaj said the latest setup indicates that bitcoin’s recovery has held up over time.
Historical performance offers mixed evidence for what could follow. On Oct. 27, 2020, a similar bullish alignment emerged while BTC traded near $13,600. It remained intact until May 2021, by which point bitcoin had climbed to a then-record above $64,000.
Another alignment confirmed in early November 2023 lasted until May 2024, during which bitcoin more than doubled from approximately $35,000 to $73,000.
But not every crossover has preceded a major rally. The June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days, while bitcoin moved only from roughly $106,000 to $112,000. In June 2024, a comparable setup lasted just 20 days before BTC declined about 10%.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. He noted that bitcoin’s subsequent price behavior will determine whether the alignment develops into a lasting bullish structure or fades as another short-term signal.
The most important confirmation could come during the next correction. Subburaj said bitcoin’s ability to remain above its 50-day moving average will be a key measure of whether the broader bullish trend remains intact.
“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.
