JPMorgan Asset Management predicts Bitcoin will deliver stronger returns than U.S. stocks, bonds and gold over the next decade, with a base-case annualized return of 10%.
The forecast appeared in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, released Tuesday. JPMorgan outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin: a 10% annualized return in its base case, a 17% gain under its bullish outlook and a 9.7% annualized decline in its bearish scenario.
The projected performance is higher than the returns expected from several traditional investments. The bank estimates U.S. bonds will generate annual returns of 5.6% to 6.6%, while large-cap U.S. stocks could return 7.5%, small-cap equities 7.7% and gold 5.5%.
The report represents the first time JPMorgan has published a defined range of potential Bitcoin returns in its research.
The bank has historically taken a skeptical stance toward cryptocurrencies, partly because of CEO Jamie Dimon’s outspoken criticism of Bitcoin. In 2017, Dimon famously labeled the cryptocurrency a “fraud.” Although his remarks have become somewhat less forceful over time, he has continued to question Bitcoin’s value.
JPMorgan Asset Management’s latest projections do not signal an outright endorsement of the cryptocurrency. The report warned that Bitcoin’s volatility and unpredictable relationships with other asset classes remain major barriers to its widespread use in investment portfolios.
The firm also declined to classify Bitcoin as a portfolio-diversification tool. Instead, portfolio manager Dr. Sheena Shah and digital asset strategy head Dennis Cristallo characterized it as a speculative asset that could benefit from monetary easing.
According to the executives, Bitcoin’s potential portfolio value largely rests on expectations of fiat currency expansion or increased trading of assets on blockchain networks.
They noted that Bitcoin typically behaves like a high-beta risk asset, with its performance linked to changes in global money supply, even as some investors regard it as “digital gold.” Its inconsistent correlations with other investments make portfolio modeling more difficult. Forecasting its long-term performance is also challenging because Bitcoin lacks conventional cash flows, leaving adoption, regulation and market liquidity as important drivers alongside technology.
Update (Oct. 20, 13:15 UTC): The report is specifically attributed to JPMorgan Asset Management.
