Crypto markets moved modestly higher on Monday as optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement increased, with Iranian officials arriving in Doha to continue negotiations.
Bitcoin rose 1.6% over the past day to trade near $77,500, while ether gained 1.4%. The broader CoinDesk 20 index advanced roughly 1.56%, reflecting a mild recovery across major digital assets.
Market sentiment was supported by prediction platforms, where traders raised expectations for a near-term deal. On Polymarket, the probability of a permanent agreement being reached this month climbed to 37%, up from about 14% just days earlier. Odds rise further over time, with a 46% chance priced in for early June and 72% by late July. Total trading volume tied to the outcome has reached around $178 million.
The shift in expectations followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said over the weekend that a framework agreement had been reached but remains subject to final approval. At the same time, senior Iranian officials—including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Abdolnaser Hemmati—arrived in Doha to participate in the talks.
Negotiations are expected to focus on key issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Pakistan and Qatar are serving as mediators. Iranian officials have described the current stage as a preliminary memorandum of understanding, with broader discussions likely to unfold over the next 30 to 60 days.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments, has faced major disruptions since late February following military tensions involving the U.S. and Israel, though some traffic has resumed in recent days.
In traditional markets, crude oil prices dropped 5.4% to around $91.30 per barrel, while gold rose 1.35% to $4,570 per ounce. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, with the Dollar Index falling about 0.3%.
Despite the improving outlook, Trump maintained a cautious tone, warning that any agreement must be comprehensive. He added that failure to finalize a deal could lead to renewed conflict, potentially escalating into a more intense confrontation.
