A relief-driven rebound supported by recovering U.S. equity markets helped lift BTC and ETH off their weekly lows, but underlying bearish derivatives positioning and negative cumulative volume delta (CVD) suggest the recovery may lack strength.
The crypto market showed signs of stabilization on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) gaining 1.1% since midnight UTC after briefly dipping below $60,000 on Wednesday to its weakest level since October 2024.
Despite the bounce, Bitcoin remains at a key structural level, with a breakdown potentially opening the door toward $52,000. For now, price action suggests the market has temporarily steadied.
Ether (ETH) also recovered, rising 1.5% to around $1,644 after briefly falling to $1,550 during Wednesday’s late-session selloff.
The uptick in crypto coincided with a rebound in U.S. equity futures, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 0.7% and 2.2%, respectively.
Derivatives positioning
BTC briefly revisited the $59,000 area on Wednesday before recovering above $61,000, but the volatility led to heavy liquidations across leveraged positions. Nearly $1 billion in crypto futures were wiped out in 24 hours, with long positions taking the largest hit.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures has climbed to 763K BTC, the highest since June 4, reversing a period of relative stability around 730K BTC. However, this increase reflects inflows that are not strictly bullish, as funding rates have turned negative—indicating rising demand for downside exposure.
In contrast, Ether futures have seen little change in open interest, with funding rates remaining slightly positive. Solana (SOL) continues to show elevated open interest near record highs with mostly neutral funding, while XRP mirrors a similar balanced positioning.
Across major assets, OI-normalized 24-hour cumulative volume delta remains negative for a third consecutive day, signaling that sellers are driving market direction through aggressive market orders rather than passive buying.
Volatility metrics have eased, with BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) falling from 51% to 46%, reflecting reduced demand for options protection and helping support the short-term bounce. Ether’s implied volatility (EVIV) shows a similar decline.
However, ETH continues to trade at a volatility premium over BTC, with implied vol levels roughly 10 points higher across timeframes.
Options skew remains firmly tilted toward downside protection, with BTC’s one-week skew showing a near 25-point premium for puts. This indicates persistent demand for downside hedges, even as upside calls remain relatively inexpensive.
Token activity
Altcoins saw a sharp but uneven rebound following Wednesday’s selloff, consistent with low-liquidity trading conditions.
Jupiter (JUP) dropped more than 12% in six hours before rebounding over 18%, highlighting heightened volatility and liquidations on both sides of the move.
Overall, about $1 billion in crypto futures positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with roughly $585 million concentrated in altcoin markets.
DeFi tokens such as AAVE and ETHFI outperformed, gaining 2.5% and 4.7%, respectively, on the day.
AI-related tokens lagged, with RENDER and NEAR slipping between 0.8% and 1.9% despite broader market gains.
Solana (SOL) fell to $64 on Wednesday, extending a 75% decline since September. A break below the June 6 low of $60 would mark its weakest level since December 2023.
