Consumer Sentiment Hits Its Lowest Level Since 2014
U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in September, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index falling 6.7 points to 81.9 from 88.6 in August. The reading was well below economists’ expectation of 89 and marked the weakest level since April 2014.
Higher interest rates and rising gasoline prices appear to have contributed to the unexpected decline. The Expectations Index also weakened, dropping 5.9 points to 63.6 for its third consecutive monthly decline.
Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said confidence had weakened further after softening over the previous two months. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024, while sentiment toward current labor-market conditions also declined but remained positive.
Consumers now expect business and labor-market conditions to weaken over the coming six months. Expectations for household income remained positive, although they eased compared with previous months.
Prediction-market contracts showed the odds of Democrats winning both the Senate and House near a contract high of 62%, while the probability attached to a Republican sweep stood at 8%.
Job Openings Add to Labor-Market Concerns
U.S. job openings declined to 7.079 million in August from 7.335 million in July, according to newly released government data. The figure also fell short of the 7.23 million economists had projected.
While JOLTS data tends to lag broader economic conditions, the August report provided another indication of some cooling in the labor market.
Attention now turns to Friday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls report. Economists expect employers to have added 129,000 jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.1%.
WTI Slides Toward $90
WTI crude fell more than 3% over the past 24 hours, bringing prices close to $90 a barrel for the first time in a week.
Oil had reached $106 in mid-September. Since the war in the Middle East began in February, WTI has largely remained within a $70-$100 trading range.
Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Hits 2026 Low
Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to a year-to-date low of roughly 628,000 BTC, down from 763,000 BTC at the beginning of August, according to CoinGlass.
Bitcoin was trading near $63,000 at the start of August before rallying to a mid-September high of $87,500.
The decline in open interest suggests traders are entering the fourth quarter with less futures leverage. Retail participation also remains subdued as Bitcoin moves into what has historically been its strongest quarter.
Bond Investor Turns More Constructive
Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, said he sees value emerging in the bond market and intends to continue buying if yields rise further.
Bianco said the widespread bearish sentiment toward bonds has created what he considers a significant cushion for investors purchasing bonds at yields around 5.2%.
The duration of his actively managed WisdomTree Bianco Total Return Fund has climbed above six years, compared with 5.7 years for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
For months, Bianco had argued that the Federal Reserve made a policy mistake by starting its easing cycle in September 2024. He pointed to the continued increase in bond yields despite falling short-term rates.
With the Fed now tightening and long-term yields elevated, Bianco said the setup could support a rebound in bonds.
Credit Markets Show Signs of Stress
Credit spreads have also started to widen after remaining relatively tight for much of the year.
Narrow spreads had been viewed by Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as evidence that investors remained comfortable with the U.S. economic outlook.
That picture has changed over the past two weeks, with Bespoke reporting a significant increase in the spread between investment-grade and high-yield debt.
RBA Raises Cash Rate to 4.60%
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on Tuesday, continuing the global trend toward tighter monetary policy.
It was the RBA’s fourth rate hike of the year and lifted borrowing costs to their highest level since 2011. The move came as the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank have also raised rates, while government bond yields remain elevated worldwide.
Bitcoin Moves Back Above $84,000
Bitcoin climbed roughly 1% to just above $84,200 on Tuesday after buyers stepped in around $82,500. The rebound came as the 10-year Treasury yield remained near 5.25%, following its move Monday to the highest level since 2007.
Ether rose 2% to almost $2,720, while DOGE gained 3% and XRP advanced 2%. BNB, SOL and TRX posted gains of less than 1%, while HYPE declined 1%. ZEC fell 9% to around $1,423.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $31 million in net inflows Monday, while Ether ETFs attracted around $17 million, according to SoSoValue. SOL and XRP funds brought in a combined $17 million. The U.S. ZEC fund was the only one among the group to post an outflow, losing roughly $8 million.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the cryptocurrency market was attempting to recover from last week’s low near $2.83 trillion. However, he noted that the market remained technically in a short-term downtrend below $2.90 trillion.
Kuptsikevich also cited the stronger U.S. dollar and uncertainty in equities as factors weighing on sentiment. He said Bitcoin had found support around previous highs after its earlier rally cooled, while sustained bullish sentiment could eventually push the cryptocurrency toward new multi-month highs above $87,000.
