XRP’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios—a measure of how far holders are in loss—have dropped to roughly -45% and -47%, levels Santiment says are unprecedented. Some traders view such extreme drawdowns as a contrarian signal.
On-chain data shows XRP investors are, on average, deeper underwater than at any point in the token’s history, a condition often interpreted as a potential market floor.
The signal comes from the MVRV (market value to realized value) ratio, which compares the current price of XRP to the average price at which its supply last moved.
When the ratio is below zero, it indicates that the typical holder is at a loss. With both short-term (30-day) and long-term (365-day) MVRV deeply negative, recent buyers and longer-term holders alike are sitting on significant unrealized losses.
Santiment said these combined readings mark the lowest levels ever recorded for XRP.
Such conditions typically reflect a capitulation phase, where investors endure steep losses and weaker hands exit positions, selling to buyers willing to accumulate. Santiment framed the setup as a risk-reward opportunity rather than a clear bottom call.
“The most attractive setups tend to emerge when sentiment is at its weakest,” the firm noted, adding that much of the downside may already be absorbed. However, it cautioned that prices could still fall further if broader market conditions weaken.
Despite these depressed metrics, XRP has moved higher, rising about 8% over the past week to around $1.14, according to CoinDesk data, making it one of the stronger-performing major tokens.
This dynamic mirrors a broader trend observed by on-chain analysts, where large bitcoin holders continue accumulating even amid record ETF outflows—a pattern often associated with late-stage sell-offs and absorption phases typically seen near cycle lows.
Still, the data does not confirm a bottom. MVRV reflects how stretched losses are, not when a reversal will occur, and such conditions can persist while prices move sideways or lower.
What the indicator does suggest is that selling pressure from underwater holders may be largely exhausted, leaving the next move dependent on whether sustained buying demand continues to build.
