MSCI’s decision to remove Strategy from its major equity benchmarks could create fresh challenges for the company’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy, according to analysts. However, some believe the potential consequences have already been largely reflected in the stock price.
Index provider MSCI confirmed that Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, will be excluded from several widely followed global equity indexes, including the MSCI USA Index, following the market close on November 30.
The removal follows MSCI’s new eligibility rules for companies classified as non-operating businesses, introduced on October 15. The policy has also resulted in Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet (3350) losing its place in the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.
Analysts warn that the decision could restrict Strategy’s ability to raise fresh capital for Bitcoin purchases, although the immediate market impact may be less severe than initially feared.
MSCI benchmarks are tracked by numerous investment funds that replicate their underlying stock allocations. When a company is removed, passive funds generally have to sell their holdings, potentially increasing downward pressure on the affected shares.
Importantly, the exclusion does not prevent Strategy from trading on public exchanges or require it to liquidate its Bitcoin reserves. The company currently holds 850,364 BTC, worth approximately $62.6 billion.
Index Removal Could Trigger Millions in Share Sales
Estimates of the potential selling pressure vary among market participants. BloFin Research expects funds tracking MSCI indexes to sell approximately 13 million Strategy shares following the exclusion.
The research firm said the amount represents around 3.1% of the company’s outstanding shares and less than one day of its typical trading volume.
Strategy provided a comparable estimate in its response to MSCI’s consultation, stating that funds tracking MSCI’s global investable indexes collectively hold approximately 13 million MSTR shares.
At Wednesday’s prices, those holdings were valued at roughly $1.6 billion.
JPMorgan offered a considerably higher projection in November 2025, estimating that MSCI’s decision could result in approximately $2.8 billion in outflows. The figure could potentially climb to $8.8 billion if other index providers introduce similar exclusions.
However, the bank’s forecast was based on MSCI’s preliminary proposal rather than the final rules approved during the latest review.
Bitcoin Accumulation Model Faces New Pressure
The bigger concern for Strategy is how the loss of passive investment demand could affect its ability to finance additional Bitcoin purchases.
The company has historically funded its BTC acquisitions through convertible debt, preferred stock offerings, and sales of common shares through an at-the-market program.
This approach works most effectively when Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV) trades above 1x, meaning its shares command a premium over the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings.
When the company issues shares at a premium and uses the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin, the amount of BTC backing each existing share can increase.
However, a premium approaching 1x makes additional equity issuance less beneficial. If the valuation falls below that threshold, issuing new shares could dilute existing shareholders rather than increase their Bitcoin exposure.
BloFin Research warned that MSCI’s exclusion could further compress Strategy’s mNAV premium, currently hovering around 1.08x, making future fundraising more difficult.
Strategy’s Valuation Premium Has Already Declined
Strategy’s mNAV has dropped substantially from approximately 3.4x in November 2024 to around 1.08x, highlighting the challenges facing its Bitcoin-focused financing model.
Its latest financial disclosures also indicate that the company is directing a smaller portion of its capital toward fresh Bitcoin purchases.
In a November 9 filing covering the week ending November 8, Strategy reported raising $283.8 million through the sale of 2.05 million common shares.
Of that amount, approximately $81.9 million was allocated to purchasing 1,036 BTC. Meanwhile, $188.3 million went toward repurchasing STRC preferred shares, while another $13.6 million was added to its cash reserves.
The company reported holding $4.77 billion in cash as of November 8. It used $21.1 million from those reserves to cover preferred dividends during the week and did not report any Bitcoin sales.
Analysts Say Much of the MSCI Impact Is Already Priced In
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes Strategy’s potential exclusion is unlikely to trigger a major surprise because investors have been anticipating the development for some time.
He expects the company’s shares to remain under pressure as the premium over its Bitcoin holdings continues to narrow.
Thielen also argued that MSCI’s decision is unlikely to create significant spillover effects for Bitcoin itself. According to him, treasury companies have become less influential in the broader BTC market as their valuation premiums have contracted.
He suggested that investors are increasingly recognizing that companies holding Bitcoin do not necessarily generate additional value beyond the cryptocurrency itself.
Although passive funds will be required to reduce their MSTR positions, Thielen expects other investors to absorb the shares at lower prices.
He also noted that several funds already maintained smaller-than-benchmark positions in Strategy, potentially reducing the scale of forced selling.
Derin Olenik, an independent Bitcoin analyst, offered a more cautious assessment.
His estimate of potential selling pressure is closer to JPMorgan’s $2.8 billion projection, but he believes the broader damage could extend beyond the company’s stock performance.
Olenik warned that the exclusion could weaken the institutional adoption narrative that has become increasingly important to the Bitcoin treasury business model.
He estimated that the decision could generate more than $2.8 billion in selling pressure, with the potential figure exceeding $11 billion if other major index providers follow MSCI’s approach.
Bitcoin Treasury Firms May Need a New Business Model
Looking ahead, analysts believe Bitcoin treasury companies may need to change how they operate to maintain investor confidence.
Thielen argued that these businesses should move beyond simply accumulating Bitcoin and adopt strategies similar to traditional asset managers.
He suggested putting their BTC reserves to productive use through yield-generating strategies and other activities that can deliver returns beyond Bitcoin’s market performance.
Olenik expressed a similar view, describing the MSCI exclusion as an opportunity for the industry to move toward what he calls “Treasury 2.0.”
Rather than focusing exclusively on purchasing and holding Bitcoin, companies could develop Bitcoin-related infrastructure, support network adoption, expand its monetary utility, and build businesses around the asset.
Such a transition would allow treasury firms to generate and compound value for shareholders through actual business operations instead of depending primarily on rising Bitcoin prices and continuous capital raises.
