Hyperliquid traders are assigning Unitree a valuation of nearly $38 billion, compared with about $9 billion at its IPO, exposing leveraged positions to potentially sharp liquidations when the stock begins trading, Allium analysts said.
Crypto traders are betting heavily that Unitree Robotics could achieve a valuation more than four times its IPO level once the Chinese robotics company enters the public market.
Unitree priced its Shanghai STAR Market shares at 150.80 yuan ($22.37), putting its IPO valuation at approximately $9 billion. In contrast, pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid were trading around $92–$94 on Friday, implying a valuation of roughly $38 billion, according to Allium.
The wide valuation gap reflects high expectations surrounding Unitree, a closely watched Chinese robotics manufacturer. Founded in Hangzhou in 2016, the company produces quadruped and humanoid robots for research, industrial and consumer markets. Its revenue climbed 335% to $253 million last year, while humanoid robot shipments exceeded 5,500 units, Allium reported.
Unitree’s IPO reportedly attracted retail demand equivalent to about 8,000 times the shares offered. Trading is expected to commence sometime between Aug. 17 and Aug. 21.
The listing is also highlighting the rapid expansion of pre-IPO perpetual futures, a relatively new segment of the crypto derivatives market.
Hyperliquid became known for its onchain perpetual futures markets, where traders can use leverage to take long or short positions without an expiry date. The platform’s ecosystem has expanded beyond crypto into commodities such as oil and gold and, more recently, private companies approaching stock-market listings.
These pre-IPO contracts do not represent equity ownership and cannot be exchanged for actual shares. Instead, they provide a synthetic way for traders to speculate on a company’s valuation before its stock has an established public-market price. Once the underlying shares begin trading, the perp price is expected to move toward the actual stock price.
Recent IPOs have demonstrated how these markets can contribute to price discovery.
Allium said a pre-IPO contract linked to Chinese memory-chip producer CXMT finished within 2.5% of its Shanghai opening price when the stock began trading in July.
Hyperliquid traders also correctly positioned ahead of SpaceX’s June debut, anticipating that Elon Musk’s company would start trading above its $135 IPO price.
Risky price convergence
Unitree’s pre-IPO contracts have already attracted considerable activity. The two Hyperliquid markets operated by Trade.xyz and Paragon have combined open interest of $9.1 million and generated roughly $59 million in trading volume, according to Allium.
The two contracts traded just 1.6% apart on average when both markets were active. Their latest prices of around $92–$94 imply more than 300% upside over Unitree’s IPO price.
Such a large premium, however, means leveraged traders could suffer substantial losses even if Unitree delivers a strong stock-market debut.
According to Allium, Unitree could open at twice its IPO price and still trigger liquidations across roughly one-third of outstanding long positions.
A $45 opening price, for example, would represent a 100% gain from the IPO price but remain approximately 52% below the current perp price. That level could liquidate about 33% of long exposure, analysts estimated. At the other end, a debut around $128—nearly six times the IPO price—could liquidate about 53% of short positions. If the stock opens near the current perp price, neither side would face meaningful liquidations.
Trade.xyz, the larger of the two markets, has almost evenly balanced positioning, with around $6.5 million in longs and $6.6 million in shorts.
Smaller traders are leaning more bearish, however. Positions worth less than $50,000 are approximately 70% short by value.
Allium noted that any significant difference between Unitree’s actual opening price and the current perp price would likely result in one side of the market being forced into liquidation.
