Key Bitcoin Momentum Indicator Turns Bullish, Supporting $150K–$200K Price Predictions
A crucial momentum indicator with a strong history of signaling major Bitcoin (BTC) rallies has recently flipped positive, reinforcing analysts’ optimistic forecasts of a surge to between $150,000 and $200,000.
The indicator in question is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, which measures the difference between the MACD line and its signal line. The MACD line itself is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA of Bitcoin’s price, while the signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line.
A shift into positive territory on the MACD histogram signals a change from bearish to bullish momentum, widely recognized by traders as a buy signal.
Currently, BTC’s weekly MACD has crossed above zero, indicating renewed upward momentum.
This bullish turn comes after Bitcoin bounced off its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), mirroring similar patterns seen in mid-2024 and early 2023—both periods followed by strong price rallies.
Notably, the MACD turned positive in late October 2023, ahead of a breakout above $70,000 in early November and culminating in all-time highs by December.
Over the past five years, the MACD has shifted positive five times, with only one false signal in March 2022, which briefly misled bulls.
The current bullish signal aligns with the broader positive macro environment and analyst projections. Earlier this week, Standard Chartered highlighted that increased institutional adoption could propel Bitcoin’s price as high as $200,000.
Meanwhile, a report from Bitfinex analysts shared with CoinDesk suggests BTC is evolving into a global macro reserve asset, potentially reaching $150,000 to $180,000 in 2025 and 2026.
