December Fed Rate-Cut Bets Collapse as Jobs Data Delay Adds Uncertainty
Markets have slashed expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that October jobs data will not be released, with November’s report delayed until after the Fed’s year-end policy meeting.
Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange now price in just a 33% chance of a rate cut, down from 50% the previous day. Less than a month ago, the odds were near 100%. The shift follows Chairman Jerome Powell’s late-October remarks, which cooled hopes for additional easing, and subsequent Fed commentary revealing divisions on future monetary policy.
The news has pressured crypto markets. Bitcoin has tumbled from $110,000 in early October to around $89,000, while crypto-linked equities have seen sharp losses. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) dropped 10% Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month. Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) fell about 10% today and almost 40% since late October.
With the Fed heading into December without fresh employment data, policymakers face a constrained outlook. Historically, labor and inflation metrics have been critical in shaping rate decisions. The absence of current data reduces the likelihood that hawkish officials will support a further cut this year.
Adding to market chatter, former President Donald Trump said at an investment forum he would have fired Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s advice to let him remain until 2026.
The only employment figure before the Fed meets is September’s nonfarm payrolls, due Thursday. Given its age, the report is unlikely to shift expectations, leaving markets bracing for uncertainty as 2025 concludes.
