Crypto Traders Brace for Fed Decision With Muted Volatility Expectations
As the Federal Reserve gears up to announce its latest policy decision today, crypto traders are scanning volatility gauges for signs of potential price swings in major digital assets like Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and XRP. So far, the outlook points to moderate — not extreme — turbulence.
Data from Volmex’s implied volatility indices suggests that while some movement is expected following the Fed’s announcement, market participants aren’t pricing in any major shocks.
The one-day annualized implied volatility for Bitcoin (BVIV) stands at 49%, implying an expected 24-hour price move of approximately 2.56%, or about $2,470 in either direction from Bitcoin’s current level near $96,500, according to TradingView.
In crypto markets — which operate 24/7 — daily volatility is calculated by dividing the annualized figure by the square root of 365, as opposed to 252 trading days used in traditional finance.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) has a one-day implied volatility of 66%, suggesting a 3.45% potential move over the next day. Solana (SOL) is expected to swing by 4.3%, based on its one-day implied volatility reading.
Volmex doesn’t yet offer an index for XRP, but traders are turning to Deribit options data for guidance. According to Amberdata, the forward implied volatility for May 8 is 77.98%, indicating an expected daily move of around 4.08%.
All eyes are on the Fed’s rate decision, due at 18:00 UTC, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 18:30 UTC. While the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady, markets will be parsing Powell’s remarks for clues on the broader economic outlook — especially amid ongoing trade tensions — and the likelihood of a rate cut in the coming months.
