Polymarket’s Top Trader Bets on 50bps Fed Cut as Markets Await Inflation Data
September 10, 2025
A leading trader on decentralized betting platform Polymarket, known as JustWakingUp, has placed a wager that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) next week, above the market consensus of a 25 bps reduction.
JustWakingUp, the platform’s most active trader with nearly $400 million in total trading volume and over $2 million in profits, has staked $15,000 on rates dropping to 3.75%. The bet has already gained 3%, with potential profits of roughly $226,000 if the Fed delivers the larger cut.
The broader market largely expects a 25 bps reduction, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 91% probability. Still, the odds for a 50 bps cut have climbed to nearly 10% following Friday’s August jobs report, which revealed 911,000 fewer jobs added over the year ending March 2025—the largest annual downward revision on record.
Institutions including BlackRock and Standard Chartered have also called for a 50 bps cut. Investors now focus on the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index on Thursday, with weaker readings likely to heighten expectations for more aggressive Fed easing, potentially boosting bitcoin and equity markets.
