Bitcoin’s 180-Day Call-Put Skew Hits Two-Year Low, Signaling Bearish Sentiment Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Address
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of growing bearish sentiment as key market indicators suggest increased caution ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The 180-day call-put skew on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest, has fallen to -0.42—the lowest level since June 2023—according to Amberdata. This negative skew indicates that traders are buying more put options, which protect against price drops, than call options, reflecting a more cautious or bearish outlook over the medium term.
Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, commented on social media, “BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift.”
This shift comes after two years of predominantly positive skew readings that indicated bullish sentiment. Bitcoin’s price has declined about 8% from its recent all-time highs above $124,000, but the long-term sentiment has turned bearish.
Lakha noted that this price pullback has driven demand for put options:
“BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. BTC doesn’t show a call premium again until March 2026. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the $110,000 strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.”
Market Awaits Powell’s Speech
Powell is expected to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Most traders anticipate he will signal potential interest rate cuts starting in September.
Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said, “Much of the expected rate cuts are already priced in. If Powell meets expectations, crypto could trade sideways or slightly lower—a classic ‘sell the news’ reaction. But if the Fed signals deeper or faster cuts, it could spark renewed risk appetite and a bullish rally.”
Hedge Activity Increases on Wall Street
Similar caution is seen in traditional markets, where investors are buying put options on major tech ETFs as a hedge against potential declines.
Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research Group, told Bloomberg, “Traders are buying ‘disaster’ puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100.”
Technical Signals Point to Bearish Momentum
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator, which tracks short- and long-term moving averages to detect trend changes, also points to bearish momentum. Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the GMMA bands, suggesting weakening bullish control and the possibility of further downside.
Other indicators like the MACD histogram reinforce this bearish outlook, highlighting strengthening downward momentum.
In summary, Bitcoin’s options market and technical indicators signal rising caution as traders prepare for a critical Fed speech that could shape the market’s near-term trajectory.
