Polymarket Traders See Powell Secure, Cook Faces Legal Test as Trump Challenges Fed
Prediction markets suggest little chance that President Donald Trump can reshape the Federal Reserve this year, even as he takes the unprecedented step of trying to fire a sitting governor.
Bets on Polymarket give Jerome Powell just a 10% chance of being forced out before his term ends in May 2026, signaling confidence in his ability to finish 2025 untouched. By contrast, the odds of Governor Lisa Cook’s removal stand at 27% after Trump accused her of mortgage fraud. Cook has refused to resign, arguing dismissals must be tied to misconduct in office, not personal disputes that predate her tenure.
The attempt to oust Cook tests the Fed’s legal shield, though history shows White House pressure on the central bank is not new. Presidents from Truman to Nixon leaned on Fed chairs for political advantage, a trend the Cato Institute has described as undermining the myth of true independence.
Markets see Powell’s dismissal as unlikely, but if it did happen, investors would likely price in faster rate cuts, dollar weakness, and a risk-asset rally that could benefit bitcoin (BTC $109,769.34). Crypto advocates argue such an event would also validate bitcoin’s “hard money” case by underscoring fiat’s vulnerability to politics.
For now, traders remain skeptical. Bitcoin barely reacted to Trump’s move against Cook, rising 0.3% before slipping back, and is still down 2.6% on the day. The CoinDesk 20 index of top tokens fell 5.3% to below 4,000 by mid-day Hong Kong.
Version 2 – Analytical / Investor Lens
Powell’s Position Looks Safe, but Trump’s Attack on Cook Rekindles Fed Independence Debate
Prediction markets are skeptical of Donald Trump’s ability to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2025, assigning just a 10% probability he is forced out before his May 2026 term ends. By contrast, Governor Lisa Cook faces greater scrutiny after Trump moved to fire her, alleging mortgage fraud in a Truth Social post.
Cook has resisted, insisting “for cause” dismissals only apply to official misconduct. Polymarket bettors price her ouster at 27% by year-end — a meaningful risk but still implying survival.
The episode revives a long history of political interference at the Fed. Truman, Johnson, and Nixon all pressured central bank leaders, with Nixon’s efforts later linked to inflation. A 2013 Cato study concluded Fed independence is “more myth than reality.”
If Powell were removed, markets could view it as clearing the way for easier policy: faster rate cuts, dollar softness, and a boost for risk assets like bitcoin. For crypto investors, it would also highlight the core narrative that bitcoin operates outside political reach.
So far, markets remain calm. Bitcoin (BTC $109,769.34) rose just 0.3% on the Cook news before slipping lower, while the CoinDesk 20 index dropped 5.3% intraday.
Version 3 – Punchy, Dramatic
Trump Targets Fed, But Markets Bet Powell Survives as Cook Faces Heat
Donald Trump’s push to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook has reignited questions about the central bank’s independence, but prediction markets don’t expect the U.S. President to go much further.
On Polymarket, bettors see only a 10% chance Fed Chair Jerome Powell loses his job this year — effectively betting he stays safe through 2025. Cook’s case looks more uncertain: Trump has accused her of mortgage fraud, making her the first governor targeted for removal, but markets give just a 27% chance she’s ousted by December.
History shows Trump isn’t alone in leaning on the Fed. Truman forced out a chair in 1951, Johnson berated Martin during Vietnam, and Nixon strong-armed Burns in the ’70s. Analysts note Fed independence has often been compromised when politically convenient.
Still, if Powell were forced out, markets could cheer a more dovish Fed — with looser liquidity, a weaker dollar, and a boost to bitcoin. It would also bolster crypto’s case that fiat is vulnerable to politics while BTC remains politically neutral.
For now, bitcoin barely flinched, up just 0.3% before slipping to a 2.6% daily loss. The CoinDesk 20 index fell 5.3% to under 4,000 in Hong Kong trading.
