Bitcoin was little changed around $84,000 as the fourth quarter opened, while investors monitored rising Treasury yields, renewed pressure on French government debt and Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
Euro Weakens as French Debt Stress Builds
The euro came under pressure against the dollar as rising French bond yields widened the gap with German debt and brought renewed attention to European sovereign risk.
France’s 10-year government bond yield increased eight basis points on Thursday, while Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell six basis points. The resulting spread widened to 135 basis points, well above the 50-80 basis-point range that has prevailed for much of the past several years.
French bond credit-default-swap spreads also climbed to their highest level in 13 years.
The euro dropped 0.9% to $1.1231, its lowest point in about five months.
At the same time, markets sharply reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. The two-year Treasury yield fell 7.5 basis points to 4.81%, while the implied probability of an October rate increase declined to 33.8% from roughly 70% earlier in the week.
Oil Climbs as Middle East Tensions Increase
Crude prices moved higher after a report indicated that the U.S. could expand its military presence in the Middle East.
The Jerusalem Post, citing a U.S. official, reported that the Trump administration was deploying a third aircraft carrier and an additional Marine unit to the region.
WTI crude rebounded from below $89 per barrel to gain 2.5% at $92.63. Brent crude advanced 3.6% to $101.53.
Manufacturing Growth Holds, but Inflation Pressure Rises
U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion territory during September, although the latest ISM figures showed significantly stronger price pressures.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged down to 54.5 from 54.6, compared with economists’ forecast of 55. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
New orders strengthened, with the index rising to 55.3 from 53.7. The Prices Paid Index, however, jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, exceeding the 72.3 estimate.
Manufacturers reported higher prices for every commodity included in the survey, while none were reported as cheaper.
The figures pointed to continued economic expansion alongside renewed inflation concerns, although markets largely looked past the data ahead of the employment report.
NEAR Falls After $3.8M Security Incident
NEAR dropped 9% after crypto investigator ZachXBT reported an approximately $3.8 million exploit involving NEAR Intents.
The service temporarily halted operations following the incident. The NEAR Intents team said the problem stemmed from a bug involving the interaction between its smart contract and Omni’s deposit and withdrawal infrastructure.
The contract-side vulnerability was patched, and the team said NEAR Intents and near.com were expected to resume operations within an hour.
Treasury Yields Post Major September Increase
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 53 basis points in September, its biggest monthly increase since September 2022, according to Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman.
The previous comparable surge in yields helped coincide with a more than 9% monthly decline in the S&P 500 in September 2022. In September 2026, the index fell only 0.45%.
Bitcoin also showed a different performance, gaining 6.3% last month compared with a 3.1% decline in September 2022.
Jobless Claims Remain Low
Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 from 198,000, coming in below the 200,000 market expectation.
The four-week moving average also declined to 200,000 from 202,500, providing little indication of significant deterioration in labor-market conditions.
Attention now shifts to Friday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls report. Economists expect payrolls to increase by 90,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.1%.
Bitcoin Starts Q4 After Strong Quarter
Bitcoin climbed 42.7% in the third quarter, recording its strongest quarterly gain since a 68.7% advance in the first quarter of 2024.
Ether rose 70.8% during the same period, marking its biggest quarterly increase since the 160.7% surge recorded in the first quarter of 2021.
Both cryptocurrencies were broadly flat at the beginning of the fourth quarter, with BTC just below $84,000 and ETH above $2,700.
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5.362% overnight, its highest level in 24 years, before easing to 5.282%.
Markets are now positioning around the September jobs report, with the expected 90,000 payroll increase and 4.1% unemployment rate likely to feed into expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.
For Bitcoin, the combination of elevated Treasury yields and the upcoming employment data leaves the $84,000 area as the immediate market reference heading into Friday’s session.
