Bitcoin Braces for Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks as Options Market Signals Modest Volatility
Bitcoin is expected to see moderate price swings ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday.
Despite the heightened attention, the crypto derivatives market is not signaling extreme volatility. Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at Orbit Markets — a firm specializing in crypto options — told CoinDesk that BTC options are pricing in a potential ±2.0% move surrounding the event.
“While the market is watching closely, the options data suggests traders are expecting controlled volatility rather than a major breakout or breakdown,” Goyal said.
Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index (BVIV1D), which reflects expected movement over a 24-hour period, has risen to 49% annualized — the highest since late May. That translates to an expected 2.5% move within a day, slightly above Bitcoin’s recent 30-day average daily fluctuation of 1.18%.
Implied volatility is direction-neutral, meaning it captures expectations for movement but doesn’t predict whether the price will rise or fall.
Still, a downside move appears more likely if Powell strikes a balanced tone — as opposed to signaling aggressive rate cuts. Traders are increasingly positioning for such an outcome by accumulating put options, which offer protection in case of a decline.
“The market’s leaning toward protection against a less-dovish outcome,” Goyal noted. “We’re seeing overnight 25-delta risk reversals skewed 6 vols in favor of puts — a clear sign that traders are hedging against disappointment.”
All eyes now turn to Powell’s Friday morning remarks, which could influence not just Bitcoin but broader risk sentiment across global markets.
