Goldman Sachs has changed its Federal Reserve outlook and now projects another 25-basis-point rate increase in October, citing the central bank’s latest projections as a signal of continued hawkish policy.
The bank had previously expected the Fed to raise rates in September and then pause. Its updated forecast instead calls for another hike at the October meeting.
The revised outlook follows the Fed’s decision Wednesday to increase its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The latest projections showed that most policymakers see room for at least one additional rate increase before the end of 2026.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the hawkish message at the post-meeting press conference, saying inflation remains “too high.” He characterized the latest increase as the removal of a “dose of accommodation,” suggesting that monetary policy may still need to become more restrictive.
Financial markets are also assigning slightly more than a 50% probability to another 25-basis-point increase in October, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
Bitcoin was trading around $76,260 at the time of writing, up approximately 0.5% over the previous 24 hours.
