Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index Hits Two-Year Low, Signaling Market Weakness
A key metric assessing Bitcoin’s market health has plunged to its lowest level in two years, potentially indicating a structural shift in market conditions.
Bitcoin was trading around $84,000 on Friday morning in Europe, marking a 23% decline from its January peak of $109,000. This drop has unsettled investors, fueling speculation over whether this is a temporary correction within a broader uptrend or the start of a bearish phase.
While BTC has historically rebounded from similar pullbacks, on-chain data from CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index suggests a deeper concern.
The index, which evaluates ten key metrics—including network activity, investor profitability, and market liquidity—assigns a score from 0 to 100. A reading above 60 is typically associated with strong bullish conditions, while sustained readings below 40 have historically coincided with bear markets.
Currently, the Bull Score Index sits at 20—the lowest level since January 2023, when Bitcoin hovered near $16,000 following the collapse of FTX. Eight of the ten tracked metrics show weakness, with network activity declining since December 2024 and transaction volumes drying up.
“Bitcoin has historically needed a Bull Score above 60 to sustain major price rallies, while extended periods below 40 have often preceded bear markets,” CryptoQuant analysts stated in a report on Thursday.
Investor profitability has also weakened, with short-term holders facing unrealized losses. Additionally, demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has cooled, with net outflows of $180 million over the past 30 days—one of the highest withdrawal rates since their introduction in early 2024.
Previous cycles have shown that extended periods of sub-40 readings often precede prolonged bearish phases, such as the 2022 downturn that erased more than 60% of Bitcoin’s value from its peak.
The coming weeks will be crucial. If the index recovers, it could signal renewed bullish momentum. However, if it remains below 40, Bitcoin may test the $80,000 support level—a key threshold analysts are closely watching.
