Coinbase Expects Crypto Rally to Continue into Q4
Coinbase analysts are staying bullish on the crypto market heading into the fourth quarter, pointing to strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and supportive regulatory signals as key factors that could sustain the rally.
Bitcoin (BTC) $115,932.17 remains well-positioned amid macro tailwinds and could exceed market expectations, analysts David Duong and Colin Basco noted. “Unless energy prices experience a major shock, the immediate risk to U.S. monetary policy appears low,” they added. On-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) is also expected to provide a price floor.
Seasonality has historically been a concern, with BTC declining in six consecutive Septembers from 2017 to 2022. However, this trend did not repeat in 2023 or 2024, and Coinbase highlighted that the limited historical sample and wide range of outcomes reduce the predictive value of seasonal trends.
A more meaningful factor is the stage of the DAT cycle. As of September 10, publicly disclosed DATs held over 1 million BTC ($110 billion), 4.9 million ETH ($21.3 billion), and 8.9 million SOL ($1.8 billion).
Late-market participants are increasingly targeting altcoins further down the risk spectrum, creating a “player-versus-player” dynamic that favors large-cap tokens and may eventually lead to consolidation among smaller DAT holders.
Overall, Coinbase expects liquidity, macroeconomic support, and regulatory momentum to continue underpinning crypto markets throughout Q4.
