Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether, pointing to slower progress on U.S. crypto legislation, weakening network activity and reduced expectations for ETF inflows.
The bank now forecasts bitcoin (BTC) at $112,000 over the next year, down from its earlier estimate of $143,000. Ether (ETH) is expected to reach $3,175, compared with a previous target of $4,304.
Even after the revisions, both assets still offer notable upside from current levels. Bitcoin was trading around $74,000 at the time of publication, while ether hovered near $2,330.
Citi continues to view ETF inflows as the primary upside catalyst, though it has trimmed its assumptions. The bank now expects roughly $10 billion in bitcoin ETF demand and $2.5 billion for ether over the next 12 months, despite modest resilience in recent flows amid geopolitical uncertainty.
The broader crypto market has struggled to regain momentum since bitcoin’s record highs in October. Prices have softened as risk appetite declined and post-halving enthusiasm faded. Bitcoin has traded below key technical levels, while ether has lagged due to weak onchain activity. Still, steady ETF inflows have helped stabilize the market despite ongoing macro and geopolitical headwinds.
According to Citi, the U.S. regulatory outlook remains a key variable. The bank noted that the window for passing comprehensive crypto legislation this year is narrowing, with market-implied odds now around 60%. While global regulatory trends remain supportive, a clear U.S. framework is seen as a stronger catalyst for institutional inflows than incremental rule changes.
At the center of the legislative debate is the CLARITY Act, a broad proposal that has passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate as lawmakers negotiate competing versions.
The bill is considered critical because it would define how digital assets are classified and clarify oversight between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — a long-standing source of regulatory uncertainty. By establishing clear categories for tokens and setting registration frameworks for exchanges, the legislation aims to reduce legal ambiguity and unlock greater institutional participation.
Citi also highlighted weakening market momentum since bitcoin’s October peak, pointing to futures liquidations, positioning fatigue and prices holding below key technical thresholds. In the near term, bitcoin may continue to trade in a range, with $70,000 seen as an important psychological level tied to pre-election pricing.
The bank outlined a range of possible outcomes. In a bullish scenario, stronger investor adoption — particularly through ETFs — could drive bitcoin to $165,000 and ether to $4,488. In a bearish case shaped by recessionary conditions, targets fall to $58,000 for BTC and $1,198 for ETH.
Ether’s outlook remains less certain, Citi noted, given its dependence on network activity, which has recently been subdued. However, potential catalysts such as stablecoin growth, expanding tokenization trends and possible regulatory developments around decentralized finance could help support demand over time.
