Carney Gains Ground on Polymarket as Canadian Election Dynamics Shift
Newly elected Liberal Party leader and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has significantly improved his chances of winning the next federal election, according to Polymarket bettors.
Carney’s odds have surged to 49%, up from just 26% a month ago, while Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre has seen his chances slip to 51%, down from 72% in February.
The next federal election is set for October 20, 2025. However, under Canada’s parliamentary system, if the opposition Conservatives and NDP unite to vote against the minority Liberal government in a confidence motion after Parliament resumes on March 24—following a prorogation requested by outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—an early election could be triggered.
The narrowing gap between Carney and Poilievre on Polymarket reflects recent polling trends. A month ago, the Conservatives led the Liberals by nearly 16 points in polling averages, but the latest data from Nanos Research shows that margin has shrunk to just one percentage point.
Analysts attribute Carney’s momentum to economic concerns, particularly trade tensions with the U.S. Voters appear to favor his background in business and central banking experience as a counterbalance to these challenges.
Crypto’s Role in the Election
Unlike past elections where digital assets played a bigger role—such as the 2024 U.S. presidential race—crypto has taken a backseat in Canadian political discourse.
Poilievre, known for his past pro-Bitcoin and blockchain stance, holds a Canadian Bitcoin ETF, as revealed in financial disclosures. However, his campaign has focused more on trade and economic issues.
Carney, who previously expressed skepticism toward cryptocurrencies during his tenure as Bank of England governor, has yet to clarify his stance on digital assets in his new political role.
As Canada’s political landscape shifts, investors and market watchers will be closely monitoring both polling trends and the evolving stance of candidates on economic and financial policies—including crypto.
