Bitcoin slipped back under $77,000 in Asian trading on Monday as rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields continued to pressure global risk assets, while expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing remained firmly muted.
The macro backdrop has shifted decisively against crypto. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.13%, its highest level since 2007, with shorter-term yields also extending gains to fresh one-year highs. At the same time, prediction markets indicate traders see little chance of rate cuts in the coming months, with probabilities of no change at 98% for June and 94% for July.
For bitcoin, this combination is a clear headwind. Higher yields increase the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets, reducing demand for non-yielding assets like BTC. At the same time, elevated oil prices are reinforcing inflation concerns, further tightening financial conditions.
Despite the macro pressure, on-chain data suggests that long-term holders remain largely unfazed.
Binance Research data shows that nearly 60% of bitcoin’s supply has not moved in more than a year, underscoring a strong holding bias among longer-term investors. Meanwhile, exchange balances have dropped to six-year lows, pointing to limited immediate selling pressure in spot markets.
However, the picture is less stable among newer market participants.
Short-term holder MVRV has fallen below 1, indicating that recent buyers are now sitting on unrealized losses. This creates a more fragile market dynamic, as these holders may be quicker to exit positions if prices fall further, amplifying downside moves during periods of macro stress.
Traders are now focused on several upcoming catalysts. Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday are expected to act as a proxy for broader market risk appetite, given its central role in the AI-driven equity rally. U.S. PPI data on Thursday will provide further clarity on whether inflation pressures are broadening beyond energy.
In parallel, progress on the CLARITY Act in Washington remains on the radar as lawmakers continue to shape the regulatory framework for digital assets.
For now, bitcoin is caught between supportive supply dynamics and tightening macro conditions. While low exchange balances and inactive long-term supply may help limit sustained selling pressure, they offer little defense against sharp, macro-driven drawdowns.
The near-term direction will depend on whether BTC can stabilize in a high-yield environment, as investors weigh persistent inflation risks against the diminishing likelihood of imminent monetary easing.
