$100K back in play as weak jobs data supports bitcoin outlook
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said Thursday’s disappointing U.S. labor report strengthens the bullish case for bitcoin, as softer employment conditions reduce the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
He added that bitcoin — often viewed as a leading indicator of liquidity and risk appetite — had already begun pricing in the weaker data ahead of the release. After briefly slipping toward a cycle low near $57,000, the asset rebounded and now appears positioned for a stronger second half. With improving technical signals, favorable July seasonality, and firmer on-chain trends, Mena said a move toward $100,000 by year-end is becoming more plausible if momentum continues.
U.S. job growth falls short of expectations
The U.S. added roughly 52,000–57,000 jobs in June, significantly below expectations of about 110,000. May’s figure was also revised down to 129,000 from the initially reported 172,000.
The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, beating forecasts of 4.3%, though the drop coincided with a decline in labor force participation to 61.5% from 61.8%.
Bitcoin held steady near $61,300 following the release, marking a gain of around 4% over the past 24 hours.
U.S. stock futures moved higher after the data, with Nasdaq futures up about 0.7%, while Treasury yields declined modestly across the curve.
Crypto leads ahead of key macro data
Before the report, cryptocurrencies were already outperforming traditional markets. Bitcoin rose about 4.5% to $61,100, with ether posting similar gains.
Solana stood out among major tokens, climbing roughly 10% after introducing its first formal onchain governance framework.
The jobs report is seen as a key input for expectations around potential Federal Reserve policy moves in the coming months.
Broader markets show mixed signals
Global markets remained volatile, with South Korea’s Kospi index sliding sharply amid losses in major semiconductor stocks tied to renewed concerns over AI demand.
Bitcoin, however, continued to recover, climbing back above $61,000. Softer inflation commentary from policymakers weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported risk assets.
Retail activity weakens as outflows rise
Binance recorded more than $2 billion in net outflows over the past week, reflecting a decline in retail participation.
Smaller bitcoin inflows — transactions under 1 BTC — have dropped to historically low levels, signaling reduced engagement from retail investors compared to previous cycles.
Macro and currency trends shape bitcoin moves
Bitcoin traded above $60,000 during European hours as markets scaled back expectations of a near-term rate hike.
At the same time, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, with bitcoin showing a growing correlation to currency movements as macro conditions continue to drive price action.
Overall, weaker U.S. labor data has improved risk sentiment, supporting bitcoin’s recovery and reinforcing expectations of a more favorable macro backdrop in the months ahead.
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