Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, characterizes the current phase as one of accumulation, while emphasizing that a clear catalyst for a rebound is still missing.
He notes that bitcoin is gradually approaching the lower boundary of a long-standing model he has used to track its behavior.
This framework is based on a power law, charting bitcoin’s entire price history on a logarithmic scale with three key bands: an upper resistance line, a central trendline, and a lower support line that has consistently marked major bottoms since 2015.
In Timmer’s latest chart, the support level is around $58,000, with bitcoin—currently near $62,700—moving closer to that threshold.
The lower portion of the model is where he expects accumulation to take place. It measures how far bitcoin deviates from the trendline, and that gap has now dropped to roughly negative 56%. This level falls within what the model defines as an accumulation zone, similar to the conditions seen during the 2018 and 2022 lows. At the same time, the 52-week bitcoin-to-gold ratio has declined to around negative 100%, reinforcing the same signal.
Even so, Timmer is not calling a definitive bottom. He has noted that the speculative premium that pushed bitcoin above $120,000 last year has largely faded, global liquidity growth is slowing, and there is no obvious trigger for a reversal until liquidity improves.
His view is that bitcoin may linger near this support level for some time rather than rebounding sharply.
He also points out that fast-moving capital has already rotated out of bitcoin—first into gold, and more recently into semiconductor stocks, which are currently drawing the most investor attention.
