Bitcoin Eyes New Heights, But ‘Invisible Hand’ Could Slow Momentum Near $115K
Bitcoin (BTC) continues its push to record territory, fueling optimism across the market. Yet experts warn that an “invisible hand” — the hedging activities of market makers and dealers — may slow the cryptocurrency’s advance once it approaches the $115,000 level.
During Asian trading hours, BTC surged past $111,000, with analysts forecasting increasing demand. Alexander S. Blume, founder and CEO of SEC-registered investment advisor Two Prime, highlighted that over-the-counter (OTC) supply appears to be tightening, which could drive prices even higher.
“If OTC supply is drying up, the rising prices won’t show up in exchange volumes or derivatives markets,” Blume explained. “This signals a potentially wild ride ahead as corporate treasuries aggressively buy bitcoin off-exchange and sovereign demand reportedly grows.”
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, echoed the bullish sentiment, predicting BTC could climb to $180,000 by year-end. He pointed to spot ETF inflows, reduced supply growth post-halving, and growing institutional adoption as key drivers.
“Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1 acts as a major macro catalyst, increasing interest in BTC and ETH as hedges against fiat risk,” Lee noted. “BTC holding above $103,000 despite volatility shows crypto’s emerging role as a strategic reserve asset.”
The Crucial $115K Level
Though Bitcoin’s upward trend remains intact, Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital, warns that market makers’ hedging around $115,000 could slow the rally.
Market makers provide liquidity by taking the opposite side of traders’ orders and seek to maintain a net-neutral position by adjusting their exposure dynamically. Data from Deribit’s BTC options market, tracked by Amberdata, reveals dealers hold significant “positive gamma” — a condition where their delta exposure increases as BTC’s price rises — at strike prices of $115,000 and above.
This positive gamma forces dealers to sell more BTC as prices rise (and buy as prices fall), effectively acting as a counterbalance that limits price swings.
“Positive gamma exposure is notably strong from $115K to $150K due to investors writing higher strike call options to generate extra yield,” Anderson said. “Call overwriters will be cautious around this breakout level. Clearing the gamma ‘pocket’ at $115K could unleash a stronger rally.”
