Bitcoin’s volatility trap score has risen to 91 as BTC moves closer to $65,000, with near-term momentum improving even though the daily technical picture remains bearish.
Bitcoin was trading near $63,500 on August 18, up around 1% over 24 hours after rebounding from an intraday low of $62,751, according to CoinGecko. The recovery pushed BTC back above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63,152 and placed the price within sight of the $65,000 resistance level.
Crypto markets remain largely stuck in a holding pattern as traders look ahead to key September developments, including the next CLARITY Act discussions and the Federal Open Market Committee minutes scheduled for September 16.
Short-Term Bitcoin Momentum Strengthens Despite Weak Daily Signals
Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows improving short-term strength. BTC moved above the Bollinger Bands’ midpoint at $63,173 and then broke above the upper band around $63,774, indicating stronger buying pressure than seen during the recent consolidation.
The 4-hour Chaikin Money Flow indicator also climbed to 0.24, suggesting that trading activity is supporting the rebound. Maintaining levels above $63,774 could shift attention toward the $64,700-$65,000 resistance zone.
The daily chart, however, remains less encouraging. The MACD was around -183 versus a signal line of roughly -101, while the histogram remained negative near -82. These readings indicate that the bearish momentum from the previous week has not yet been completely reversed.
Daily Chaikin Money Flow was slightly below zero at -0.05, highlighting the difference between short-term and broader market conditions. While buyers have stepped back in over the shorter timeframe, overall capital flows remain subdued.
Bitcoin Volatility Compression Raises the Prospect of a Major Move
Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft said on X that Bitcoin’s implied volatility has fallen into the lowest 2% of its historical range. Even so, implied volatility remains about 1.5 times above realized volatility.
This unusual setup has pushed Glassnode’s volatility trap score to 91 out of 100, its highest level in more than three and a half years. Schultze-Kraft stressed that the indicator does not predict whether Bitcoin will move higher or lower. Instead, it highlights an unusually compressed market environment that has historically been followed by larger price swings.
CoinGlass liquidation data shows a nearby concentration of positions around $64,000, with another significant cluster near $64,700. A sustained move through those levels could trigger short liquidations and generate additional buying pressure, potentially helping BTC challenge $65,000.
Meanwhile, downside liquidity is concentrated around $62,700 and $62,200. A rejection from higher levels could therefore bring these areas back into focus. The levels also broadly align with the $63,000 support and $65,000-$65,600 resistance zones highlighted in an August 18 market update by Sunday Guardian, which noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced more than $385 million in outflows during the previous week.
Key Levels to Watch for Bitcoin
A daily close above $64,000 would strengthen Bitcoin’s recovery and could pave the way toward $65,000. If that resistance gives way, the next major target could be around $67,357, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $82,825 to $57,796.
On the downside, a break below $63,152 could send BTC toward $62,500. Further weakness could expose the $60,000 area, while $57,796 remains the key lower boundary of the broader bearish setup.
Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, said traders are watching the upcoming FOMC minutes for clues about potential rate cuts. Market participants are also monitoring whether the CLARITY Act receives additional attention in the Senate before lawmakers leave for recess.
Mei further pointed to strong demand for AI stocks as another factor competing with cryptocurrencies for institutional capital. If the trend continues, capital could rotate between AI equities and crypto, potentially restricting Bitcoin’s upside and keeping pressure on the broader digital-asset market.
