Bitcoin remained above $63,000 on Monday, gaining alongside U.S. equities, but persistent ETF outflows and declining odds for key crypto legislation continue to keep bulls cautious.
BTC rose about 0.8% since midnight UTC, recovering part of last week’s decline. With no clear catalyst behind the move, Bitcoin appeared to be following broader U.S. equity markets. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.5%, reaching their highest level since July 2.
The recovery is being offset by weak institutional flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $390 million in combined net outflows last week, including three straight sessions of withdrawals—the first such streak since late July. It marked the biggest weekly outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin products in six weeks.
Ether ETF activity remained subdued, while Solana ETFs bucked the trend, posting their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May.
Clarity Act outlook weakens
The outlook for the Clarity Act has also become less optimistic. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, reduced his estimate on Aug. 14 for the bill to become law this year to around 10%. Prediction markets currently assign it about a 17% probability.
The Senate is expected to consider a cloture vote on Sept. 15 when lawmakers return from recess, although traders and analysts increasingly anticipate another postponement.
Derivatives market signals
Taker positioning remains neutral: The 24-hour long-to-short volume ratio among takers is close to balanced, continuing the trend seen at the end of last week. Takers are market participants who execute trades against available orders and therefore remove liquidity from the order book.
Leverage could amplify market moves: Bitcoin futures open interest is around $48 billion, nearly twice its daily trading volume. XRP futures show a comparable imbalance. If a wave of forced liquidations hits the market, the relatively thin liquidity could magnify price movements.
Bitcoin OI eases while XRP remains strong: BTC futures open interest has slipped to about 750,000 BTC from 760,000 BTC on Friday. Since April, similar increases above the 750,000-BTC level have generally failed to last. XRP futures are showing greater resilience, with open interest still near a 10-month high. ETH and SOL futures have comparatively modest positioning.
CC attracts bearish bets: Canton Network’s CC token dropped more than 1.5% over the past 24 hours, putting it among the weakest assets in the top 100 by market capitalization. Meanwhile, its futures open interest increased more than 5%. Falling prices alongside rising OI typically indicates traders are building short positions. Negative perpetual funding rates and a negative OI-adjusted 24-hour CVD further support the bearish interpretation.
ZEC draws bullish positioning: Zcash is also seeing rising futures open interest, but its indicators point in the opposite direction. Positive CVD suggests buyers are aggressively entering long positions through market orders. Its funding rate has climbed to +10%, reflecting stronger bullish demand.
Volatility remains muted: The 30-day implied-volatility indexes for Bitcoin and Ether remain close to their lowest levels of the year, signaling limited demand for options protection. Traditional markets show a similar pattern, with the VIX at its lowest level since January.
Options favor near-term upside: Deribit’s options data shows demand for BTC and ETH calls at the short end of the curve, indicating a preference for bullish exposure. The volatility term structure also remains relatively calm ahead of Wednesday’s release of the Fed meeting minutes.
Options volume remains divided: Both BTC calls and puts rank among the five most-traded instruments over the past 24 hours. Ether options display a similar balance between calls and puts.
Altcoin moves
PUMP gained 7.8% since midnight UTC, while its 24-hour trading volume jumped 55% to $90 million.
ZEC climbed 4.7% to $508, extending the recent rally in privacy-focused tokens following Monero’s strong performance last week.
MORPHO added 5% to reach $2.07, recovering from Friday’s decline and outperforming other major DeFi tokens.
HYPE rose 3.53% to $59.08 and is now roughly 2% higher for the week.
FET fell 1.56% to $0.1196, making it one of Monday’s weaker altcoins as momentum in AI-related tokens faded.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season indicator improved to 46/100 from 36/100 on Aug. 7, suggesting sentiment toward altcoins is beginning to recover. Still, the platform’s Fear and Greed Index remains at 38/100, keeping the broader market firmly in fear territory.
