Bitcoin Holds Steady as Gold Rallies to Record High; Tokyo Inflation Fuels BOJ Rate Hike Bets
Bitcoin (BTC) took a breather on Friday, stalling just below its all-time high as gold (XAU) continued its upward momentum. The precious metal’s surge, fueled by concerns over tariffs and currency debasement, has also boosted gold-backed crypto tokens. Meanwhile, rising inflation in Tokyo adds weight to expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Bitcoin Nears Record but Faces Resistance
Bitcoin was trading around $104,400 at press time, just 4.7% away from setting a new lifetime high, according to CoinDesk data. However, President Trump’s renewed commitment to imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada appears to have put a cap on BTC’s rally.
While some analysts anticipate a short-term dip before the next major leg up, onchain derivatives data suggests a different outlook.
“Some crypto leaders expect BTC to drop before rallying toward $250K later this year, but the Derive.xyz market remains cautious. There’s only a 9.7% probability of BTC falling below $75K before March and just a 4.4% chance of hitting $250K before September 26,” said Nick Forster, founder of AI-driven decentralized options platform Derive.xyz, in a statement to CoinDesk.
Derivatives flows on both Deribit and CME remain bullish, indicating growing institutional interest and potential state-level BTC reserves in the U.S.
Gold Hits Record High as Market Seeks Safety
Gold soared to an all-time high of $2,799 per ounce early Friday, bringing its monthly gains to 6.5%. The rally has been driven by heightened borrowing activity in London’s bullion market, with central bank gold reserves being drawn down for deliveries to the U.S. Concerns over potential import tariffs are reportedly accelerating this demand, according to Reuters.
Jeroen Blokland, founder of the Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund, noted that gold’s rally against major fiat currencies signals fears of currency debasement. This trend could also fuel increased interest in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.
Gold-backed tokens have followed suit, although they still trade at a discount to physical gold. Tether Gold (XAUT) hit a record $2,796 on Bitfinex, while PAXG briefly tested highs above $2,800.
Tokyo Inflation Accelerates, Pressuring the BOJ
Fresh data from Tokyo showed inflation picking up pace in January, reinforcing expectations of further tightening by the BOJ. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed 2.5% year-over-year, up from December’s 2.4% rise.
The BOJ recently raised its policy rate to 0.5%—the highest level in over 16 years—signaling a shift toward monetary normalization. A strengthening yen, however, could create headwinds for risk assets, as was seen in August last year.
In the forex markets, AUD/JPY—a key risk sentiment indicator—broke below a consolidation pattern, suggesting further downside pressure and a broader shift toward risk-off sentiment.
