Bitcoin’s latest market downturn has avoided two conditions typically associated with deeper bear markets: a daily close below Realized Price and a negative aggregate NUPL reading. Both metrics have remained relatively resilient this cycle, pointing to less severe market-wide stress than seen during previous downturns.
Bitcoin spent several months below Realized Price during the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets. This time, the cryptocurrency has not recorded a single daily close beneath that level, while the June low also remained above it. According to Glassnode, if Bitcoin continues to hold above the True Market Mean, the June bottom would rank as the shallowest among the three bear-market lows in its comparison.
The percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit fell sharply at the June low, reaching a level similar to the November 2022 bottom. In other words, a comparable portion of the circulating supply was underwater. However, the scale of unrealized losses was much smaller. NUPL, which tracks paper gains and losses across the entire Bitcoin supply, remained above zero throughout the current cycle rather than turning negative as it did in 2018 and 2022.
A positive NUPL should not be interpreted as every Bitcoin holder remaining profitable. Likewise, Bitcoin trading above Realized Price does not mean all individual holders are in profit.
Holder Profitability Points to Key Levels
Glassnode places the largest long-term-holder supply concentration between $84,000 and $85,000. This range represents a significant amount of holder supply, but the concentration itself does not prove that these coins are profitable or that their owners are preparing to sell.
The report puts the mean MVRV price at approximately $96,700. The metric combines Bitcoin’s Realized Price with its long-term average MVRV and represents the level where the average holder’s unrealized profit returns toward its historical norm. Bitcoin buyers who entered one to two years ago, particularly those who bought near the top of the range, would also be approaching break-even around this price.
At the lower end, the True Market Mean sits near $77,000 and serves as an important support benchmark. These levels provide a framework for assessing Bitcoin’s recovery, while institutional demand and capital inflows remain additional factors to watch.
Long-term-holder MVRV has also remained above 1 during the current cycle, suggesting that this group has stayed in aggregate profit. Selling pressure likewise appears relatively contained. Weekly realized profits during the current rally remain well below the levels recorded around the 2024 and 2025 market tops, even though nearly all short-term holders have returned to profit.
$95K–$97K Becomes the Next Major Test
Bitcoin’s next significant hurdle lies around $95,000–$97,000, where options positioning overlaps with the mean MVRV price. The report shows the highest positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes, while negative gamma has accumulated between the current spot price and $92,000. Dealer hedging could increase price swings below $92,000 before helping to restrain moves near $95,000.
Demand has improved, although the data does not guarantee that the recovery will continue. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.3 billion in inflows during the five days after the squeeze began, following two consecutive weeks of net outflows.
Spot market activity has also strengthened. Twenty-four-hour trading volume has risen 121% from its August low, more than doubling during the rally. However, the seven-day average remains roughly 30% below the level recorded one year earlier.
Taken together, these indicators provide some support for the recovery. A move below $84,000 would shift attention back toward the $77,000 True Market Mean, while a sustained break above $95,000–$97,000 would put the major resistance zone under pressure. October price levels and broader macroeconomic developments could further influence Bitcoin’s risk-reward setup.
The data supports a more cautious interpretation rather than confirming that the current cycle has completely escaped the historical bear-market pattern. Bitcoin has avoided a negative aggregate NUPL reading and has not closed below Realized Price, while realized profit-taking has remained relatively limited. At the same time, ETF inflows and spot trading volumes have begun to recover.
For now, holding above $84,000 keeps the path toward Glassnode’s $96,700 mean MVRV level open. A break below $84,000, followed by a move toward $77,000, would put the current recovery structure under greater pressure.
