Bitcoin continued trading below $75,000 on Tuesday as investors awaited the October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision. Analysts warned that weaker inflation alone may not be sufficient to reverse Bitcoin’s declining trend, with a sustained recovery likely requiring stronger liquidity conditions and renewed demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
BTC was trading around $74,750 at the time of writing, down 0.6% since midnight UTC. The cryptocurrency briefly climbed above $75,000 during overnight trading but struggled to maintain its gains.
The October CPI figures are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Dow Jones consensus estimates project a 0.3% monthly increase in headline inflation, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to advance 0.2%. These forecasts suggest a slowdown from September, when headline and core inflation increased by 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.
This month’s report will not provide a year-over-year inflation comparison. The government shutdown in October last year prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting a complete index reading, making an annual comparison unavailable.
Bitcoin Awaits CPI Data as Market Confidence Weakens
Bitcoin enters the inflation announcement with weakening technical momentum. The cryptocurrency has followed a downward trajectory since climbing above $87,000 in early October, while concerns surrounding the artificial intelligence sector have added pressure to broader financial markets.
Another concern is the weakening demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. These investment products had previously provided significant institutional buying support, helping sustain Bitcoin’s upward momentum. However, their recent performance has disappointed investors, leaving the market increasingly reliant on direct spot purchases and favorable economic conditions.
According to BRN analysts, lower inflation expectations could provide some support for risk assets. However, they believe Bitcoin requires consistent buying activity to establish a meaningful recovery. Without a turnaround in ETF inflows and a more dovish Federal Reserve, the cryptocurrency could remain vulnerable to further declines.
Bitget Wallet analysts expressed similar concerns, noting that this week’s inflation figures could influence expectations surrounding the Fed’s December policy decision.
Stronger-than-expected inflation could increase the likelihood of another interest rate hike, potentially weighing on risk assets. Conversely, a softer core CPI reading could generate a short-term recovery across financial markets. However, analysts emphasized that improving liquidity and stronger spot demand will be essential for a lasting Bitcoin rebound.
The CPI announcement also marks the beginning of several important economic releases. U.S. producer price index data is scheduled for November 13, followed by the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting on November 18. The November 25 release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will provide another important assessment of price pressures.
Moon Pursuit Capital founder and managing partner Utkarsh Ahuja warned that persistent inflation could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to provide monetary support, even if technology stocks continue to struggle.
Ahuja referenced recent comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly regarding the possibility of additional interest rate increases. He cautioned investors against assuming that the central bank would quickly intervene to support weakening markets.
He also highlighted the financial risks facing large artificial intelligence projects. Higher borrowing costs and extended approval processes could reduce potential returns, even when demand remains strong. Businesses that require additional funding before their existing investments generate sufficient cash flow could face greater execution challenges and uncertainty over future financing conditions.
Bitcoin Risks Further Declines Below $73,000
Analysts are increasingly focused on Bitcoin’s $73,000-$74,000 range as an important support zone that could determine its next major move.
BRN cautioned that a daily close below $73,000 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially sending BTC toward $70,000. If bearish momentum intensifies, the cryptocurrency could face a deeper correction toward levels below $60,000, near its July lows.
The firm also described Bitcoin’s recent rebound from below $74,000 as a temporary recovery within an established downtrend rather than confirmation that the market has reversed direction.
Bitget Wallet analysts similarly identified the $73,000-$74,000 area as a critical price range. They believe Bitcoin needs more balanced derivatives positioning and sustained positive spot ETF flows to establish a stronger foundation for recovery.
On the bullish side, reclaiming $80,000 and holding above that level would indicate improving market demand and strengthen the possibility of a broader recovery.
However, a decisive break below $73,000 could expose Bitcoin to another decline toward $68,000. A failure to defend that lower support would suggest that the market weakness extends beyond a temporary liquidation event, potentially opening the door to a more prolonged correction.
