U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs are still overseeing about $85 billion in assets even after bitcoin’s sharp correction, but analysts say the steady asset base may not be the clear bullish signal many assume.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $126,000 in early October before sliding to nearly $60,000, cutting its price roughly in half. Despite that drop, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs trading in the U.S. have posted combined net outflows of only about $8.5 billion. The funds continue to hold around $85 billion in assets under management — more than 6% of bitcoin’s circulating supply.
While some observers view the limited redemptions as evidence of strong investor conviction, others argue that ETF resilience is largely a function of ownership structure.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a recent note that ETF share registers are dominated by market makers and arbitrage-oriented hedge funds that typically maintain hedged, market-neutral positions.
According to late-2025 13F filings, between 55% and 75% of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust — which manages roughly $61 billion — is held by market makers and arbitrage funds. These participants generally offset their ETF exposure elsewhere, meaning their positions are not necessarily directional bets on bitcoin’s upside.
Market makers provide liquidity by quoting continuous buy and sell prices, profiting from spreads while minimizing exposure to price swings. Arbitrage hedge funds seek to capture discrepancies between related markets, such as spot ETFs and bitcoin futures, by holding offsetting positions. In both cases, their activity does not inherently create bullish or bearish pressure.
Thielen also noted that market makers reduced their exposure by an estimated $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion during the fourth quarter, when bitcoin traded near $88,000, reflecting softer speculative demand and lower arbitrage inventory requirements.
As a result, while ETF assets have remained sizable through the downturn, much of that stability may be driven by hedged trading strategies rather than unwavering long-term optimism about bitcoin’s price trajectory.
