Analysts do not see a direct connection between Nvidia’s troubles and Bitcoin’s recent decline. Instead, they attribute the selloff to capital flowing toward Anthropic’s anticipated IPO and a broader shift toward risk aversion across financial markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to around $68,000 overnight, marking its lowest level since August. The decline extends the cryptocurrency’s losses to more than 20% since early October, as a series of market disruptions continues to weigh on the largest digital asset.
Recent turbulence surrounding Nvidia, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, has put pressure on the AI investment theme. At the same time, persistent inflation and political uncertainty following the U.S. midterm elections have added to the weakness across financial markets. However, another development may be exerting a more significant influence on the current selloff: Anthropic’s highly anticipated stock market debut.
Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca said the latest Bitcoin decline may be linked to the opening of Anthropic’s IPO subscription books, which reportedly attracted six times more demand than the available shares. He believes investors are moving capital out of liquid markets to pursue what could become the largest public offering in history by a substantial margin.
According to Rocca, investors seeking allocations in Anthropic’s IPO, which aims to raise as much as $64.4 billion, could be selling Bitcoin and other readily tradable assets to generate cash. He compared the situation with SpaceX’s IPO earlier this year, which he said temporarily reduced Bitcoin market liquidity as investors redirected funds toward the offering.
Rocca explained that large-scale IPOs can attract investors with the prospect of rapid returns. During periods of intense demand for allocations, liquid assets such as Bitcoin often become an immediate source of funding.
Tech Stocks and Strategy Add to Market Pressure
Rocca also highlighted fluctuations in technology stock valuations following Jensen Huang’s unexpected departure from Nvidia, recent cybersecurity incidents, and the possibility of Strategy being excluded from MSCI global indexes as additional factors undermining investor confidence.
However, several analysts argue that Nvidia’s difficulties do not directly explain Bitcoin’s decline. Instead, they believe the market is experiencing a widespread reduction in risk exposure.
Mark Connors, chief investment strategist at Risk Dimensions, said Nvidia’s situation has no direct influence on Bitcoin. He pointed to gold’s decline as evidence of a broader deleveraging and risk-reduction trend across the AI investment trade.
Chris Sullivan, co-portfolio manager at Hyperium Decimus, also dismissed the idea of a meaningful connection between Nvidia and Bitcoin’s price movements, describing the relationship as lacking a logical basis.
Sullivan instead highlighted increasing bearish positions against Bitcoin, with short open interest surpassing its August peak. He also cited substantial withdrawals from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), heightened fear across cryptocurrency markets, and expectations of a potential 50-basis-point interest rate hike within the next 30 days.
The selloff has extended beyond cryptocurrencies into precious metals, reinforcing the view that investors are reducing exposure to risk-sensitive assets across multiple markets rather than responding exclusively to Bitcoin-related developments.
Sullivan noted that the simultaneous decline in metals and cryptocurrencies appears unusual, adding that market behavior often defies conventional logic.
Jim Ferraioli, head of crypto research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, also questioned whether Nvidia was responsible for Bitcoin’s downturn, aside from its broader influence on market sentiment.
Ferraioli identified MSCI’s potential removal of Strategy from its benchmark indexes as another possible source of selling pressure. Such an exclusion could compel index-tracking funds to liquidate their Strategy holdings, affecting the stock of the company that holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury.
Nevertheless, Ferraioli pointed out that Bitcoin’s steep decline occurred around 11 p.m. Eastern Time, suggesting that neither Nvidia-related developments nor the MSCI announcement was necessarily the immediate catalyst for the selloff.
Despite Bitcoin falling below $70,000, Rocca argued that the cryptocurrency has demonstrated relative resilience considering the volume of negative developments affecting financial markets.
SpaceX IPO Provides a Potential Bitcoin Recovery Pattern
Strive CEO Matt Cole sees a potential parallel between Bitcoin’s recent weakness and its price performance ahead of SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO in June.
According to Cole’s post on X, Bitcoin declined 19% during the 50 days leading up to SpaceX’s public listing. In comparison, the cryptocurrency has fallen 18% over the equivalent period before Anthropic’s anticipated IPO.
Bitcoin continued to slide after SpaceX went public, eventually reaching its lowest point 18 days later before beginning a recovery. By the 100th day following the listing, Bitcoin had climbed 28% above its IPO-period price level.
Cole suggested that if Anthropic’s IPO produces a similar market pattern, much of Bitcoin’s current decline may already be behind it, potentially paving the way for a rapid rebound over the coming months.
Based on this historical comparison, Cole estimated that Bitcoin could recover toward $90,000 by late February if the same trajectory repeats.
However, the comparison comes with important limitations. Bitcoin’s decline around the SpaceX IPO also coincided with concerns about potential Bitcoin sales by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, making it difficult to attribute the entire downturn to the IPO-related liquidity drain alone.
