JPMorgan: Bitcoin Undervalued vs. Gold as Volatility Hits All-Time Low
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a discount relative to gold as its volatility collapses to historic lows, according to a research report from JPMorgan (JPM) released Thursday.
The bank noted that Bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to about 30%, the lowest on record. With volatility converging toward gold, BTC is now only about twice as volatile, the narrowest ratio ever recorded.
JPMorgan analysts said this decline in volatility increases Bitcoin’s appeal for institutional investors. On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise approximately 13%, implying a price near $126,000, to match gold’s $5 trillion in private investment. By the bank’s calculations, BTC is currently undervalued by roughly $16,000 versus gold, indicating potential upside.
The report, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, linked the trend to growing corporate treasury adoption, with institutional holders now controlling over 6% of total Bitcoin supply—similar to how central bank quantitative easing historically reduced bond volatility.
Corporate adoption is further supported by equity index inclusion, which draws passive capital inflows. Metaplanet (3350) was upgraded to FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category, while Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD (NAKA) plans a $5 billion raise following a $679 million Bitcoin purchase.
New entrants, including ventures led by Adam Back, are seeking to rival MARA Holdings’ treasury holdings, following the strategy popularized by Michael Saylor’s MSTR, the report added.
