Barclays expects 2026 to be a subdued year for crypto as investor enthusiasm fades and spot trading volumes continue to decline.
In its year-end report, the bank highlighted headwinds for exchanges like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), citing a lack of structural growth drivers and limited catalysts to reignite retail demand. “Spot crypto trading volumes […] appear to be trending towards a down-year in FY26, and it is not clear to us what might reverse this trend,” the analysts wrote.
Historically, crypto markets have surged around major events, including product launches, policy moves, or political developments—such as the March 2024 spot bitcoin ETF inflows and the pro-crypto U.S. presidential election. Without similar catalysts, Barclays sees limited near-term growth.
Regulatory clarity could provide a boost. The proposed CLARITY Act, which seeks to define digital commodities versus securities and clarify SEC and CFTC oversight, may reduce uncertainty and facilitate tokenized product launches.
Coinbase is expanding into derivatives and tokenized equities, but soft spot volumes and rising costs led Barclays to lower its COIN price target to $291. Early-stage tokenization initiatives by BlackRock (BLK) and Robinhood are unlikely to meaningfully impact 2026 earnings.
Overall, 2026 may be a transitional year for crypto, with firms focusing on long-term investments amid muted market activity.
