Crypto markets are treading carefully as traders await Thursday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Bitcoin is steady above $111,600, while Ethereum trades near $4,298. The CD20 index, tracking the largest digital assets, is up 1.6%, holding just above 4,000.
Equities and gold have rallied on expectations of U.S. rate cuts, yet crypto remains rangebound. August’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed only 22,000 jobs added versus 75,000 expected, pushing futures higher and sending 2-year Treasury yields to year-lows as markets price in 72 basis points of cuts this year.
Options data highlight a defensive stance, with QCP Capital noting rising put skews and elevated short-term implied volatility ahead of CPI. Polymarket shows ETH with a 70% chance of holding above $4,600 this month, but just 13% odds of exceeding $5,600. Solana stands out, with rising chances of a new all-time high before 2026, suggesting improving breadth beneath the surface.
Enflux calls this the “split-screen reality” of 2025: speculative headlines dominate, while institutional adoption and infrastructure quietly strengthen. WLFI’s recent wallet freezes, including Justin Sun’s, underscore the speculative side, though onchain data shows Sun’s transfers occurred hours after the crash, which was driven by shorting across exchanges.
Market Snapshot:
- BTC: Holding above $111K; potential breakout, but downside risk toward $100K persists.
- ETH: Around $4.3K, reflecting cautious positioning.
- Gold: ~$3,636/oz, supported by rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand.
- Nikkei 225: +0.9%, reaching record highs amid fiscal stimulus hopes.
- S&P 500: +0.2%, as investors await CPI for Fed guidance.
Takeaway: Governance drama and short-term volatility may cap crypto upside, but institutional and regulatory foundations continue to solidify. As Enflux notes, “Structural legitimacy, not speculation, remains the real story of 2025.”
