Maelstrom, the investment vehicle founded by Arthur Hayes, is launching into 2026 with what Hayes describes as “almost maximum risk” positioning, maintaining the aggressive strategy it adopted in the latter half of 2025 while holding minimal stablecoin reserves.
Hayes explained in a recent commentary that the fund is overweight in risk assets, with a sharpened emphasis on privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Zcash (ZEC) and a growing allocation to emerging decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens that now dominate the portfolio.
In his note, Hayes reiterated that Maelstrom began the year with elevated exposure: while the fund will continue to funnel spare capital from financing trades into Bitcoin, its dollar-denominated stablecoin holdings remain extremely low.
This approach represents a dramatic pivot from the fund’s public posture earlier in 2025, when Hayes predicted a pullback in Bitcoin toward $70,000 amid what he termed a “mini financial crisis,” followed by a resumption of quantitative easing.
In May 2025, Hayes acknowledged that Maelstrom had reduced risk and increased fiat holdings. However, by April — during a brief Bitcoin dip below $85,000 triggered by tariff concerns — the fund had begun aggressively increasing its crypto exposure, going “maximum long” on outright positions.
Through the summer, Hayes described the fund as “backing up the truck” to capitalize on what he saw as a nascent altcoin cycle, a conviction that only intensified later in the year as Maelstrom took advantage of what Hayes considered attractive prices in privacy assets.
By December, with expectations of rate cuts and continued expansion of Federal Reserve balance sheet policies, Hayes declared it “time to go shopping,” signaling that the fund was actively adding positions across risk markets.
Hayes, regarded as one of crypto’s most influential macro commentators, argues that a combination of rising nominal U.S. GDP, large U.S. budget deficits, and what he views as inevitable liquidity injections by the Fed will continue to buoy crypto prices. He suggests that this liquidity wave, amplified by geopolitical maneuvers such as U.S. involvement in Venezuela, should broadly support crypto assets — especially higher‑risk tokens.
Reflecting on Maelstrom’s performance in 2025, Hayes said the year was profitable but uneven: strong gains from Bitcoin, HYPE, and PENDLE were offset by losses in others like PUMP. Looking ahead, he plans to emphasize narratives he considers credible within the broader liquidity context.
The strategic shift coincides with Maelstrom’s disclosed investment in River, a startup focused on chain abstraction and stablecoins, though financial terms were not disclosed.
