Bitcoin continued to trade near $65,000 despite a sharp selloff in Nvidia and other AI-related stocks. Analysts say this week’s Federal Reserve decision could be the key factor determining whether BTC breaks out of its current range or revisits June’s lows.
The cryptocurrency market showed relative strength on Monday, holding steady even as AI-driven technology shares came under pressure.
Bitcoin hovered around $65,000, up roughly 4% from Friday, while Ethereum climbed to its highest level in almost two months. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s 4.8% decline weighed on AI-focused stocks, though the broader Nasdaq remained mostly unchanged as gains from major technology firms including Apple, Microsoft, and Google helped offset the weakness.
That resilience, however, is heading into a critical test.
With the Fed’s upcoming policy announcement, major U.S. inflation data releases, and earnings reports from several technology giants all scheduled this week, analysts believe the next few days could determine whether Bitcoin breaks out of its prolonged consolidation period or falls back toward its June lows.
Technical Setup Remains Constructive
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, described crypto’s ability to withstand volatility in traditional markets as a positive signal.
He said the recent performance supports the view that digital assets may be beginning to show some independence from conventional risk assets.
According to Kruger, Bitcoin must move above $67,300 to escape the multi-week trading range that has restricted price action since June. A breakout above that level could open the path toward further gains, while Ethereum faces a similar challenge near the $2,000 mark.
Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also pointed to Ethereum’s stronger performance compared with Bitcoin as a favorable indicator for the broader crypto market. The ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum’s value against Bitcoin, reached a three-month peak on Monday.
Analysts Remain Cautious on Demand
Not all market observers are convinced that Bitcoin’s rebound marks the start of a larger rally.
Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the recovery has lacked the strong buying pressure typically seen before sustained upward moves.
He argued that the market is simply remaining range-bound rather than building enough momentum for a confirmed breakout.
Sondergaard’s base case remains a possible decline toward the $52,000–$58,000 range unless market conditions improve.
Although nearly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, Bitcoin futures open interest has declined while prices moved higher. This suggests traders are cutting exposure instead of aggressively adding bullish positions. Order-book activity also continues to indicate net selling pressure.
Sondergaard said the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and its forward guidance will likely shape the direction of risk assets on Wednesday. Market participants will also be watching Thursday’s core PCE inflation report, second-quarter GDP figures, earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, as well as Friday’s estimated $13 billion–$14 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry.
For Nansen to shift toward a more bullish outlook, the firm is looking for stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, continued spot Bitcoin ETF demand, and signs that long-term holders have stopped selling at losses.
Until those conditions appear, Sondergaard considers the recent recovery a short-term positioning bounce rather than the beginning of a broader market uptrend.
