While Bitcoin continues to push into uncharted territory, MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) stock is showing signs of fatigue, underperforming despite the cryptocurrency’s record-setting rally. This growing divergence has caught the attention of 10x Research, which now sees bearish potential in the Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin proxy.
In a report shared with clients on Friday, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen recommended a bear put spread strategy targeting MSTR. The trade involves buying a $370 put option and simultaneously selling a $300 put, both expiring on June 27. This setup profits most if MSTR’s stock declines to $300 or below by expiration.
“The trade captures the growing disconnect between Bitcoin’s strength and MicroStrategy’s fading momentum,” Thielen wrote. “Despite BTC reaching all-time highs, MSTR remains well below its peak—suggesting investor enthusiasm is waning.”
As of Friday’s close, the spread cost $13.89, which also represents the maximum potential loss if MSTR begins trending higher. The maximum profit is realized if the stock falls to $300 or lower, reflecting a bearish outlook with limited downside risk.
MSTR shares dropped 7% on Friday to close at $369, according to TradingView data. The company, which has accumulated 576,230 BTC since August 2020 primarily through debt issuance, is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin among publicly traded firms.
Once a go-to vehicle for institutional investors seeking Bitcoin exposure without owning the asset directly, MicroStrategy’s stock now appears to be decoupling from BTC’s performance. Bitcoin recently surged past $110,000, setting new all-time highs, while MSTR stalled near $440, well below its record of $543 from November 2021.
The divergence has sparked speculation across crypto social channels, with some recalling that a similar decoupling occurred ahead of Bitcoin’s peak in late 2021. While historical parallels do not guarantee future outcomes, the current trend may reflect cooling sentiment toward BTC among traditional finance investors.
“Bitcoin is breaking records, but Strategy is stalling—and that divergence matters,” Thielen noted. “Retail is still chasing the dream, unaware that the right-tail upside may be gone. This is where the game changes: when the middleman runs out of premium and the engine stalls.”
In addition to being a directional bet, Thielen emphasized the bear put spread can serve as an effective hedge for investors with long Bitcoin exposure, helping manage risk if momentum begins to wane.
Thielen previously made a timely call predicting Bitcoin’s surge into six figures, lending additional weight to his current outlook.
