Bitcoin (BTC) hovered just below the $100,000 mark Thursday, fueled by a wave of optimism across crypto markets. The rally was driven by expectations of rate cuts later this year and fresh speculation around a forthcoming U.S. trade agreement.
Leading the altcoin charge were Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano’s ADA, which jumped 5% and 4% respectively. Other major tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, BNB, and Solana (SOL), posted solid 2%–3% gains. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), tracking the top digital assets by liquidity and market cap, climbed 2.2%.
The market momentum was stoked late Wednesday when former President Donald Trump teased a major new trade deal via social media, promising details at a 10 a.m. press conference. Though Trump didn’t name the partner, multiple outlets including Bloomberg, FT, and The New York Times reported it would be the United Kingdom.
“This will be the first of many deals,” Trump said in the post, hinting at a broader de-escalation of tariff tensions that have roiled markets in recent months. Traders interpreted the news as a signal of improving conditions for global trade and risk assets.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this week, in line with market expectations. But the real story lies in what comes next.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there’s now a 55% chance of a rate cut in July, with markets pricing in a total of 100 basis points in cuts by the end of the year. Analysts say the easing cycle could kick off as soon as late summer.
“Bitcoin is crawling back toward $100K as traders grow more confident in a pivot by the Fed,” said Semir Gabeljic, head of Pythagoras Investments. “With pressure mounting on Fed leadership from the White House, rate cuts feel more like a question of when—not if.”
Still, the road ahead may be rocky. Some economists warn the Fed could be heading into stagflation territory, where inflation stays high even as growth slows and unemployment rises.
“The central bank is facing one of its toughest policy environments in decades,” said Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks. “With tariff costs being pushed onto consumers, we could see inflation rise again, even as job data weakens.”
Selby noted that CF Benchmarks maintains its forecast for around 100 basis points of cuts in 2025—but cautioned that any delay could deepen economic pain.
Bitcoin, however, appears to be benefiting from the turbulence. U.S.-based spot bitcoin ETFs, particularly BlackRock’s IBIT, have seen record inflows, with $4.3 billion entering the fund in the past month alone.
Jupiter Zheng, a partner at HashKey Capital, said the latest surge reflects a deeper transformation in how investors view crypto assets.
“Bitcoin’s strength is no longer just about speculation,” Zheng said. “It’s increasingly seen as a strategic hedge in a world full of economic and political uncertainty.”
