Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the $95,000 mark on Monday as traders brace for a possible dip toward $90,000 or lower, fueled by growing macroeconomic uncertainty and the looming Federal Reserve meeting this week. While the Fed is largely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, market participants are closely watching for any signals on economic projections and the potential for future rate cuts.
After a robust two-week rally that saw Bitcoin briefly surpass $98,000, attracting both retail interest and institutional capital, the cryptocurrency is now facing pressure from a mix of technical and macroeconomic factors.
Key Resistance and Downside Targets
“We’re back at a crucial resistance level that served as support between December and February,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, a market analyst at FxPro, in an email to CoinDesk. He added that the next potential downside targets for Bitcoin are $92,500 and $89,000. A clear break below the $90,000 mark, he warned, would not only be technically damaging but also psychologically significant, pushing Bitcoin under its 200-day moving average.
Fed and Trade Developments in Focus
Market sentiment is being further influenced by developments in U.S.-China trade talks, which have historically had a substantial impact on Bitcoin’s price movements. With the Fed’s policy meeting on the horizon, traders are keen to gauge any shifts in the central bank’s stance on interest rates and inflation, especially after the recent stabilization in economic data.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates steady on Wednesday, but any insights into future rate cuts could shape market expectations for the second half of the year. “Solid economic data, combined with hopes of easing trade tensions, has helped markets rebound from the post-Liberation Day selloff,” noted QCP Capital in a morning brief. However, they cautioned that ongoing tariff risks could reignite inflationary pressures.
Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and Rising Caution
Despite the short-term price pullback, Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to draw in significant investor inflows. Last week, net inflows into these ETFs totaled $1.81 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. However, on-chain indicators suggest caution may be warranted. Glassnode highlighted that the cumulative unrealized gains for long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have surged to nearly 350%, a level historically associated with increased profit-taking.
“As the market nears this level, we’re likely to see more selling pressure from LTHs, requiring strong demand to absorb the outflows,” Glassnode noted. This aligns with Bitcoin’s price nearing the $99,900 mark, a threshold where long-term holders often start to distribute their assets more aggressively.
Meme Coin Mania and Market Sentiment
Meanwhile, data from Santiment shows that meme coin chatter has surged to a 2025 peak in recent weeks. This suggests that traders are beginning to shift back toward higher-risk, speculative bets, after months of focusing on major cryptocurrencies and ETFs. However, this shift has yet to translate into sustained gains for all assets. For example, GORK, a meme coin linked to an AI chatbot parody account recently mentioned by Elon Musk, failed to maintain its momentum, signaling that celebrity-driven pumps may be losing their potency in the current market environment.
As Bitcoin’s price faces resistance and market participants await critical macroeconomic signals, the next few days could prove pivotal in shaping the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
