Governance Attack on UMA Oracle Sparks Controversy Over Ukraine-Themed Bet
A mysterious Ethereum wallet, BornTooLate.Eth, has amassed over 1.3 million UMA tokens to influence the outcome of a Ukraine-related betting market—yet the financial gains from the maneuver appear minimal.
The wallet’s owner executed what some are calling a governance attack on UMA, a decentralized oracle protocol that Polymarket relies on for dispute resolution. By accumulating a substantial number of UMA tokens, BornTooLate.Eth became one of the protocol’s largest stakeholders, gaining significant voting power to determine the results of disputed markets.
UMA, an “optimistic” oracle, allows token holders to weigh in on contentious outcomes. The protocol has previously faced scrutiny for its role in resolving controversial bets—such as those involving Barron Trump’s meme coin, the OceanGate submarine search, and Venezuela’s disputed election—decisions that have occasionally frustrated prediction market participants.
Ukraine Market Controversy
In this latest case, the disputed market asked traders to bet on whether a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth resources would be signed by the end of March. While reports indicate negotiations were ongoing, no formal agreement had been signed.
Despite this, Polymarket resolved the bet to “yes” after BornTooLate.Eth leveraged its staked UMA tokens to cast the deciding vote.
UMA supporters argue that the oracle functioned as intended, while many Polymarket users claim that the result was factually inaccurate and a clear manipulation of the system.
A Costly and Unprofitable Attack
Interestingly, the governance attack does not appear to have been particularly profitable.
According to on-chain data from Polymarket Analytics, the largest winner took home just $55,000, while the biggest loser forfeited around $73,000—relatively modest sums compared to other high-profile Polymarket wagers.
Etherscan data shows that BornTooLate.Eth began accumulating UMA tokens over a year ago, building a treasury that now exceeds 1.3 million tokens, an investment likely worth over $2 million. Given the scale of the acquisition, the cost of executing the attack far outweighed any direct financial gains.
Polymarket Responds
Polymarket has made it clear that it will not issue refunds, stating that this was not a “market failure.” Instead, the platform is working with the UMA oracle team to strengthen safeguards and prevent similar incidents in the future.
“This market resolved against the expectations of our users and our clarification,” a Polymarket spokesperson posted on Discord. “We’re committed to building the future of prediction markets, which requires building resilient systems in which everyone can trust.”
Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan has not yet responded to requests for comment.
