Bitcoin CPI Reaction: Softer Inflation May Spark an Hourly BTC Rebound
The October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, with economists expecting core inflation to rise by 0.22%. Historical market data suggests Bitcoin has a stronger chance of posting an immediate gain when monthly core CPI comes in at 0.2% or lower. BTC advanced during the first hour after 10 of the 13 CPI releases that met this threshold.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release October inflation figures at 8:30 a.m. New York time, or 13:30 UTC. The announcement could influence Bitcoin’s direction and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment for the remainder of the week. It will also provide investors with fresh information ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision.
Market forecasts indicate that core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by approximately 0.22% in October. That would mark a slowdown from September’s 0.33% monthly reading.
Bitcoin is trading near $74,400, still hovering close to Sunday’s two-month low of $73,510.
CPI announcements have historically produced sharp movements across crypto markets. A review of Bitcoin’s first-hour performance following the previous 24 inflation releases reveals a clear pattern. When monthly core CPI registered at 0.2% or less, BTC posted gains in 10 instances. By comparison, Bitcoin rose in only four of the 10 cases when core inflation reached 0.3% or higher.
The upcoming figures could therefore determine whether Bitcoin finds room for a short-term recovery or faces another wave of selling.
Economists Expect Inflation to Cool, but Forecasts Remain Mixed
Most Wall Street estimates point toward a moderation in October inflation. According to a survey of 17 banks and research organizations compiled by The Wall Street Journal, the median forecast stands at 0.25% for headline CPI and 0.22% for core CPI. WSJ reporter Nick Timiraos also circulated the estimates on X.
The individual projections show considerable variation:
- Headline CPI: Forecasts range from 0.14% at Nomura to 0.29% at Pinebrook Capital. September’s monthly increase was 0.65%.
- Core CPI: Estimates range between 0.13% at Nomura and 0.28% at BNP Paribas and Pinebrook Capital, compared with 0.33% in September.
- Annual inflation: September’s headline CPI rate stood at 3.7%, while core inflation was reported at 2.6%.
These differences could influence the market’s initial interpretation of Tuesday’s announcement. Because CPI figures are published rounded to one decimal place, the estimates leave open the possibility of a reported core reading between 0.1% and 0.3%.
A reading of 0.3% would indicate that underlying inflation has remained close to September’s pace, potentially weakening expectations for meaningful disinflation.
Year-over-year comparisons may also be less straightforward than usual. The October 2025 government shutdown prevented the BLS from publishing that month’s CPI report, eliminating a direct comparison with the same month last year.
October CPI Could Shape Expectations Ahead of the Fed’s December Meeting
Tuesday’s inflation figures represent the final CPI release available before the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 policy meeting. Market participants are increasingly pricing in another interest-rate increase.
As of Tuesday morning, Polymarket data indicates an 86.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. The probability of the Fed maintaining its current policy rate stands at 11.5%.
Higher borrowing costs and rising Treasury yields typically create unfavorable conditions for Bitcoin. As traditional fixed-income investments become more attractive, investors may reduce exposure to non-yielding assets such as cryptocurrencies.
A cooler-than-expected CPI reading could ease concerns about persistent inflation and reduce expectations for another Fed rate increase. Such an outcome may provide Bitcoin with an opportunity to recover.
However, stronger inflation figures could reinforce the case for tighter monetary policy, potentially increasing selling pressure across Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
Historical Bitcoin CPI Performance Favors Softer Inflation
To evaluate Bitcoin’s response to inflation announcements, Binance price data was examined across the first hour following 24 CPI releases dating back to October 2024. Each observation begins at the scheduled 8:30 a.m. ET publication time.
The results reveal a noticeable difference between CPI release sessions and regular trading days.
- Greater volatility: Bitcoin’s median high-to-low range during the first hour after CPI announcements reached 1.17%, almost twice the 0.62% median recorded during the same period on other weekdays.
- Core CPI of 0.2% or lower: BTC finished higher in 10 of 13 instances, delivering an average first-hour return of 0.45%.
- Core CPI of 0.3% or higher: Bitcoin recorded gains in only four of 10 cases, while its average hourly performance showed a decline of 0.11%.
The figures suggest that softer core inflation has historically provided a more favorable environment for Bitcoin during the immediate reaction period. However, this relationship is not a reliable predictor of future price movements.
The most significant hourly decline in the sample occurred on February 12, 2025. Core CPI increased by 0.4% that month, coinciding with a 1.9% drop in Bitcoin within the first hour. The previous month’s 0.3% reading also accompanied a 1.4% decline.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: $73,510 Remains a Critical Support Level
Bitcoin continues to trade above its recent two-month low, although the broader technical picture remains under pressure.
According to Binance data, BTC is changing hands near $74,398, approximately 1.2% above Sunday’s low of $73,510.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains below both its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). These trend indicators give greater importance to recent price movements and are widely monitored to assess market momentum.
Important resistance levels:
- $75,599: Monday’s session high and the nearest upside reference.
- $76,481: The 200-day EMA, which could act as an additional barrier to recovery.
- $79,128: The 50-day EMA and a more significant resistance level.
Important support levels:
- $74,177: Tuesday’s session low.
- $73,510: Sunday’s two-month low and the immediate downside level to watch.
- $73,027: The August 21 low, which could become the next target if bearish momentum accelerates.
For traders assessing Bitcoin’s CPI response, the first hour following the 8:30 a.m. ET announcement will be particularly important. Historical observations indicate that BTC continued moving in the same direction over the following 24 hours in 20 of the 24 releases examined.
This suggests that the initial reaction may provide useful clues about Bitcoin’s short-term direction. A softer inflation reading could support a rebound toward nearby resistance, while a hotter-than-expected report may put the $73,510 support level back under pressure.
